Target scenario setting.

The ecological security of oasis cities in arid and semi-arid regions is highly susceptible to changes in regional landscape patterns and the degree of coordination between human activities and the environment. At the same time, the ecological security of urban landscapes also profoundly affects the success of regional economic and environmental coordination and development. This study is based on land use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as land use data from the natural development scenario (NLD), economic development scenario (ECD), ecological development scenario (ELD) and ecological-economic development scenario (EED) simulated by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in 2030. From the perspective of production-living-ecological land (PLEL), it analyzes the changes in the past and future landscape ecological security and coupling coordination characteristics of Bole. The results show that from 1990 to 2020, Bole was mainly dominated by grassland ecological land (GEL) and other ecological land (OEL), accounting for a total proportion of 69.51%, with a large increase in production and living land area; the average value of landscape ecological risk is decreasing, and the landscape ecological security of Bole is developing towards benignity; the area of highly coupled coordination zone is decreasing continuously, while that of basic coordination zone and moderate coordination zone is increasing continuously. Under the 2030 EED scenario, the overall changes in various types of land use are not significant, and the average value of landscape ecological risk is the smallest, but it is higher than that in 2020 as a whole; under EED scenario, the area of highly coordinated zone and moderate coordinated zone is the largest among four scenarios, and the best coupling coordination level among the four scenarios. Landscape ecological security and its coupling coordination will be affected by land use patterns. Optimizing regional land use patterns is of great significance for improving urban landscape ecological security and sustainable high-quality development.

干旱半干旱地区绿洲城市的生态安全极易受区域景观格局变化及人类活动与环境间协调程度的影响。同时，城市景观生态安全也深刻影响区域经济与环境协调发展的成效。本研究采用1990年、2000年、2010年及2020年的土地利用数据，以及通过斑块生成土地利用模拟（patch-generating land use simulation, PLUS）模型模拟得到的2030年自然发展情景（natural development scenario, NLD）、经济发展情景（economic development scenario, ECD）、生态发展情景（ecological development scenario, ELD）与生态-经济发展情景（ecological-economic development scenario, EED）下的土地利用数据。从生产-生活-生态用地（production-living-ecological land, PLEL）视角，本研究分析了博乐市过去及未来的景观生态安全与耦合协调特征。研究结果表明：1990年至2020年，博乐市以草地生态用地（grassland ecological land, GEL）与其他生态用地（other ecological land, OEL）为主要用地类型，二者总占比达69.51%，生产与生活用地面积大幅增加；景观生态风险均值呈下降趋势，博乐市景观生态安全正向良性方向发展；高度耦合协调区面积持续缩减，而基本协调区与中度协调区面积则不断扩大。2030年生态-经济发展情景下，各类土地利用类型的整体变化幅度并不显著，景观生态风险均值为四类情景中最低，但整体仍高于2020年水平；该情景下高度协调区与中度协调区的面积为四类情景中最大，耦合协调水平为四类情景中的最优。景观生态安全及其耦合协调程度受土地利用格局影响显著，优化区域土地利用格局对于提升城市景观生态安全水平、实现可持续高质量发展具有重要意义。