Data_Sheet_1_A resilience analysis of the contraction of the accommodation and food service sector on the Scottish food industry.docx

The Scottish economy, such as the United Kingdom (UK) economy, has been exposed to several adverse shocks over the past 5 years. Examples of these are the effect of the United Kingdom exiting the European Union (Brexit), the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently Russia–Ukraine war, which can result in adverse direct and indirect economic losses across various sectors of the economy. These shocks disrupted the food and drink supply chains. The purpose of this article is 3-fold: (1) to explore the degree of resilience of the Scottish food and drink sector, (2) to estimate the effects on interconnected sectors of the economy, and (3) to estimate the economic losses, which is the financial value associated with the reduction in output. This article focuses on the impact that the sudden contraction that the “accommodation and food service activities”, resulting from the pandemic, had on the food and drink sectors. For this analysis, the study relied on the dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM), which takes into account the relationships across the different sectors of the Scottish economy over time. The results indicate that the accommodation and food service sector was the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown contracting by approximately 60%. The DIIM shows that the disruption to this sector had a cascading effect on the remaining 17 sectors of the economy. The processed and preserved fish, fruits, and vegetable sector is the least resilient, while preserved meat and meat product sector is the most resilient to the final demand disruption in the accommodation and food service sector. The least economically affected sector was the other food product sector, while the other service sector had the highest economic loss. Although the soft drink sector had a slow recovery rate, economic losses were lower compared to the agricultural, fishery, and forestry sectors. From the policy perspective, stakeholders in the accommodation and food service sector should re-examine the sector and develop capacity against future pandemics. In addition, it is important for economic sectors to collaborate either vertically or horizontally by sharing information and risk to reduce the burden of future disruptions. Finally, the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, i.e., other service sectors should form a major part of government policy decision-making when planning against future pandemics.

过去五年间，苏格兰经济与英国（United Kingdom, UK）经济一样，遭遇了多轮负面冲击。此类冲击包括英国脱欧（Brexit）的影响、新冠疫情（COVID-19 pandemic）的冲击，以及近期的俄乌冲突，上述事件均会对苏格兰经济各部门造成直接与间接的负面经济损失。这些冲击破坏了食品饮料供应链。

本文的研究目标分为三点：其一，探究苏格兰食品饮料部门的韧性水平；其二，评估冲击对经济中关联产业部门的影响；其三，估算由产出缩减所对应的经济损失，即与产出减少挂钩的财务价值。

本文聚焦于疫情引发的"住宿与餐饮服务活动"突然收缩对食品饮料部门造成的冲击。本次分析采用了动态不可操作性投入产出模型（Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model, DIIM），该模型能够考量苏格兰经济各部门间随时间变化的关联关系。

研究结果显示，住宿与餐饮服务部门受新冠疫情封控措施的影响最为严重，产出缩减幅度约达60%。动态不可操作性投入产出模型结果表明，该部门遭受的冲击会对经济其余17个部门产生级联效应。在面对住宿与餐饮服务部门的最终需求冲击时，加工与腌制鱼类、水果及蔬菜部门的韧性最弱，而腌制肉类及肉制品部门的韧性最强。受经济冲击影响最小的部门为其他食品产品部门，而其他服务部门的经济损失最高。尽管软饮料部门的复苏速度较慢，但其经济损失仍低于农业、渔业与林业部门。

从政策层面来看，住宿与餐饮服务部门的利益相关方应重新审视该部门，并提升其应对未来疫情的能力。此外，各经济部门应通过纵向或横向协作，共享信息与风险，以降低未来冲击带来的负担，这一点至关重要。最后，在制定应对未来疫情的规划时，政府的政策决策应将经济中最脆弱的部门——即其他服务部门——作为核心考量内容。