A Re-Examination of the Benefits of Trade Agreements on Agricultural Exports and the Impact of the 2008 Great Recession

This study provides an analysis of trade benefits of regional trade agreements on global agricultural trade flows. The impact of the 2008 Great Recession is examined. Trade creation and diversion effects are evaluated within the framework of dynamic gravity models. Thegeneralized gravity equations and probit models that account for missing export values are estimated by methods that deal with various specification effects. The findings show that the system-GMM is the efficient estimator. The results reveal that the ASEAN, EAC, and EU associations were more effective in generating agricultural trade benefits for members than the rest of the associations. The NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and SADC associations generated little or no benefits for members. The advent of the 2008 Great Recession impaired agricultural trade flows. While the ASEAN, EAC, and EU associations sustained net trade creation during the entire period and sub-periods, all benefits declined uniformly following the 2008 Great Recession

本研究分析了区域贸易协定对全球农产品贸易流量的贸易收益，并考察了2008年大衰退的影响。研究在动态引力模型（Dynamic Gravity Models）框架下，评估了贸易创造与贸易转移效应；针对存在缺失出口值的广义引力方程与概率单位模型（Probit Models），采用可处理各类设定偏差的估计方法开展参数估计。研究结果表明，系统广义矩估计（System-GMM）为最优有效估计量。结果显示，东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN）、东非共同体（EAC）与欧洲联盟（EU）这三个区域组织为成员国带来的农产品贸易收益，显著优于其余区域贸易协定组织；北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）、南方共同市场（MERCOSUR）与南部非洲发展共同体（SADC）则仅为成员国带来了极少甚至未产生任何贸易收益。2008年大衰退的爆发对全球农产品贸易流量造成了显著负面影响，尽管东盟、东非共同体与欧盟在全周期及各子周期内均实现了净贸易创造，但在2008年大衰退之后，所有区域贸易协定的贸易收益均出现了普遍下滑。