Analysis of the Effectiveness of Long Distance Passes in 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup

Abstract The aim of this study was to analyze the effectiveness of long distance passes performed during the 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup. All 64 matches were analyzed, however, actions performed during overtime were not included in the sample. The study defined long pass as an action made by a player from the defensive midfield aiming at passing the ball to another teammate located on the offensive field. The action result assessment followed these criteria: shots on goal, ball possession maintenance, loss of ball possession and ball possession recovery. Total long distance passes were also considered in the analysis. Throughout the tournament, 4,512 long distance passes were attempted. The main findings were that 59% resulted on loss, 28% on maintenance and 12% on recovery of the ball possession, but only less than 1% resulted in shots on goal (F = 505.5; p<0.001; partial ƞ2 = 0.76). Teams with the highest number of long pass attempts loose ball possession more frequently. There were more long distance passes at the first and at the last 15 min of matches. UEFA and Concacaf teams executed, respectively, the lowest and the highest number of long passes. The major outcome of this study is that long distance passes have low effectiveness due to the high rate of loss of ball possession, rarely creating score opportunities. The more the teams executed long passes, the more the teams lose ball possession.

摘要 本研究旨在分析2014年巴西国际足联世界杯（FIFA World Cup）赛事中的长传战术实战效能。本研究覆盖全部64场赛事，但未将加时赛阶段的攻防动作纳入样本范围。研究将长传定义为：由防守中场位置球员发起，旨在将球传递至进攻场区队友的传球动作。传球结果的评估遵循四类标准：射正球门、维持球权、丢失球权与夺回球权。本次分析同时统计了长传总尝试次数。整届赛事中共计发起4512次长传尝试。核心研究结果显示：59%的长传以丢失球权告终，28%实现球权维持，12%完成球权夺回，仅不足1%的长传转化为射正球门（F=505.5；p<0.001；偏η²=0.76）。研究发现，长传尝试次数最多的球队，其球权丢失频率也更高。赛事的前15分钟与最后15分钟区间内，长传使用频次更高。欧洲足球协会联盟（UEFA）与中北美洲及加勒比海足球协会（Concacaf）的球队分别为长传使用频次最低与最高的参赛队伍。本研究的核心结论为：长传战术的实战效能偏低，因其伴随极高的球权丢失率，且极少创造得分机会；球队实施长传的频次越高，其球权丢失的概率也就越高。