Mortality caused by accidental falls among the elderly: a time series analysis

Introduction : The worldwide increase in the elderly population has highlighted the importance of accidental falls and their consequences.Objective: To perform time-trend analysis of the mortality rate from accidental falls in (1) the city of Florianópolis (2) the state of Santa Catarina and (3) Brazil. Method : A time-series study of data from the Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade ("the Mortality Information System") was performed. The variation in mortality caused by accidental falls was estimated using the joinpoint regression method, based on the International Disease Classification (ICD-10), chapter XX, codes W00 to W15 and W17 to W19, from 1997 to 2010. Results : It was observed that in the most recent periods (2005/2008; 2002/2008; 2003/2008), there was a significant increase in mortality rates related to accidental falls in all three regions, and that these rates increased with advancing age. Conclusion : Strategies to prevent accidental falls among the elderly should be aimed, mainly, at those who are 80 and over, the age in which accidental falls result in higher death rates.引言：全球老年人口的持续增长凸显了意外跌倒及其后果的重要性。 研究目的：对（1）弗洛里亚诺波利斯市、（2）圣卡塔琳娜州及（3）巴西全境的意外跌倒死亡率开展时间趋势分析。 研究方法：本研究针对死亡率信息系统（Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade）的数据开展时间序列研究。基于国际疾病分类（International Disease Classification，ICD-10）第20章中编码为W00至W15、W17至W19的疾病分类标准，采用连接点回归法（joinpoint regression）估算1997年至2010年间意外跌倒所致死亡率的变化情况。 研究结果显示，在近期统计周期（2005/2008、2002/2008、2003/2008）内，上述三个区域的意外跌倒相关死亡率均出现显著上升，且死亡率随年龄增长而升高。 研究结论：老年人群意外跌倒预防策略应主要针对80岁及以上群体，该年龄段因意外跌倒导致的死亡率最高。