Response curve data of <i>Aedes albopictus.</i>

Background Global warming, urbanization and the resumption of global population movements post-COVID-19 have made the prevention and control of dengue and its vector transmission more challenging. To tackle this issue, this study evaluated and predicted the suitable habitats of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in China. This study aims to identify the key influencing factors, analyze patterns of habitat expansion and contraction, and explore regions in China at risk of dengue fever outbreaks in the future. Methodology/principal findings This study utilized mosquito distribution data from 2010 to 2023 and employed Maxent to map the distribution of suitable habitats. The key influencing factors and response curves were further analysed, and patterns of habitat expansion and contraction were investigated. The findings reveal that the main variables affecting the distributions of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti are annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and land use and land cover changes. The suitable habitat for Ae. albopictus shows a significant northward expansion trend, reaching large areas in Shandong and Henan province by 2030. The suitable habitat area for Ae. albopictus is increasing annually and can reach approximately 2.38 million square kilometers by 2030. Compared to the outbreak year of dengue fever in China in 2019, the suitable habitat area for Ae. albopictus in 2030 will increase by approximately 17.06%, with a growth of 2.57% in the sum of high-risk and medium-risk suitable habitat areas. In contrast, the suitable habitats of Ae. aegypti are primarily concentrated in Guangdong, Hainan and Yunnan Provinces. Conclusion/significance This study compared the potential changes in the distributions of suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti in 2014, 2019, and 2023 and predicted suitable habitats for 2030, as well as contraction and expansion trends in the suitable habitats of Ae. albopictus. The findings aim to identify regions at risk of future dengue fever outbreaks in China, providing a scientific basis for public health authorities to develop effective dengue prevention and control strategies.背景 全球变暖、城市化进程以及新冠疫情后全球人口流动的恢复，使得登革热及其媒介传播的防控工作面临更为严峻的挑战。为应对这一难题，本研究对中国境内白纹伊蚊(Aedes albopictus)与埃及伊蚊(Aedes aegypti)的适宜生境进行了评估与预测。本研究旨在明确关键影响因素、分析生境扩张与收缩模式，并探究中国未来登革热暴发的风险区域。 研究方法与主要结果 本研究采用2010年至2023年的蚊虫分布数据，运用最大熵模型(Maxent)绘制适宜生境分布图谱。进一步分析了关键影响因素与响应曲线，并对生境扩张与收缩模式展开研究。研究结果显示，影响白纹伊蚊与埃及伊蚊分布的主要变量为年降水量、年平均气温以及土地利用与土地覆被变化。白纹伊蚊的适宜生境呈现显著的北扩趋势，至2030年将覆盖山东省与河南省的大片区域。白纹伊蚊的适宜生境面积逐年递增，至2030年可达约238万平方千米。相较于2019年中国登革热暴发的年份，2030年白纹伊蚊的适宜生境面积将增长约17.06%，其中高风险与中风险适宜生境的总面积将增加2.57%。与之相对，埃及伊蚊的适宜生境主要集中于广东省、海南省及云南省。 结论与意义 本研究对比了2014年、2019年与2023年白纹伊蚊及埃及伊蚊适宜生境分布的潜在变化，预测了2030年的适宜生境分布，并分析了白纹伊蚊适宜生境的扩张与收缩趋势。本研究结果旨在明确中国未来登革热暴发的风险区域，为公共卫生主管部门制定高效的登革热防控策略提供科学依据。