Replication Data for: The Geography of Racially Polarized Voting: Calibrating Surveys at the District Level

Abstract: Debates over racial voting, and over policies to combat vote dilution, turn on the extent to which groups' voting preferences differ and vary across geography. We present the first study of racial voting patterns in every congressional district in the US. Using large-sample surveys combined with aggregate demographic and election data, we find that national-level differences across racial groups explain 60 percent of the variation in district-level voting patterns, while geography explains 30 percent. Black voters consistently choose Democratic candidates across districts, while Hispanic and White voters’ preferences vary considerably across geography. Districts with the highest racial polarization are concentrated in the parts of the South and Midwest. Importantly, multi-racial coalitions have become the norm: in most congressional districts, the winning majority requires support from minority voters. In arriving at these conclusions, we make methodological innovations that improve the precision and accuracy when modeling sparse survey data.

摘要：围绕种族投票以及打击选票稀释的政策展开的争论，核心在于不同群体的投票偏好差异程度及其地理分布差异。本研究首次针对美国所有国会选区的种族投票模式开展系统性分析。本研究结合大样本调查数据与汇总人口统计及选举数据，研究发现：种族群体间的全国层面差异可解释60%的选区层面投票模式变异，而地理因素的解释力占比达30%。黑人选民在所有选区中均一贯支持民主党候选人，而西班牙裔与白人选民的投票偏好则随地理因素呈现显著差异。种族极化程度最高的选区集中分布于美国南部与中西部地区。值得注意的是，多种族联盟已成为选举常态：在多数国会选区中，获胜所需的多数席位支持需依赖少数族裔选民的选票。在得出上述结论的过程中，本研究针对稀疏调查数据的建模方法做出了创新性改进，有效提升了模型的精度与准确性。