DataSheet_1_Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe.pdf

With the development of globalization and agriculture trade, as well as its own strong migratory capacity, fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J.E. Smith) has invaded more than 70 countries, posing a serious threat to the production of major crops in these areas. FAW has now also been detected in Egypt in North Africa, putting Europe, which is separated from it only by the Mediterranean Sea, at high risk of invasion. Therefore, this study integrated multiple factors of insect source, host plant, and environment to provide a risk analysis of the potential trajectories and time periods of migration of FAW into Europe in 2016~2022. First, the CLIMEX model was used to predict the annual and seasonal suitable distribution of FAW. The HYSPLIT numerical trajectory model was then used to simulate the possibility of the FAW invasion of Europe through wind-driven dispersal. The results showed that the risk of FAW invasion between years was highly consistent (P<0.001). Coastal areas were most suitable for the expansion of the FAW, and Spain and Italy had the highest risk of invasion, with 39.08% and 32.20% of effective landing points respectively. Dynamic migration prediction based on spatio-temporal data can enable early warning of FAW, which is important for joint multinational pest management and crop protection.

随着全球化与农业贸易的发展，加之其自身极强的迁飞能力，草地贪夜蛾（fall armyworm, FAW）（Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith)）已入侵超过70个国家，对这些地区主要农作物的生产造成严重威胁。目前，北非埃及境内也已检测到草地贪夜蛾，仅以地中海相隔的欧洲因此面临极高的入侵风险。因此，本研究整合虫源、寄主植物与环境等多类因子，对2016至2022年间草地贪夜蛾迁飞入侵欧洲的潜在迁飞路径与时段开展风险分析。首先，本研究借助CLIMEX模型预测草地贪夜蛾的年度与季节适宜分布范围；随后采用HYSPLIT数值轨迹模型，模拟草地贪夜蛾借助风力扩散入侵欧洲的可能性。研究结果显示，不同年份间草地贪夜蛾的入侵风险高度一致（P<0.001）；沿海地区最适宜草地贪夜蛾的扩散，西班牙与意大利的入侵风险最高，有效登陆点占比分别达39.08%与32.20%。基于时空数据的迁飞动态预测可实现草地贪夜蛾的早期预警，这对于多国联合害虫治理与作物保护具有重要意义。