Searching For a Break in GNP

It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in post war U.S. GNP data. This paper shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no trend null hypothesis

已有研究提出，由于战后美国国民生产总值（Gross National Product, GNP）数据存在趋势断点，现有针对收入未预期变动的长期影响的估算可能存在显著的正向偏误。本文研究表明，现有统计证据并不足以支持放弃无趋势原假设。