Replication Data for: A Drop in the Ocean: How Priors Anchor Attitudes Toward the American Carceral State

That Black and White Americans disagree about the carceral state is well established; why this is the case is much less clear. Drawing on group hierarchy theory and the state’s role in perpetuating group subordination/domination, we theorize that differences in socialization and contact during emergent adulthood produce divergent priors for racial groups and gender subgroups within race. These different starting points shape how people integrate new information from recent contact into their belief systems. Using a survey of over 11,000 respondents, we find that instead of all groups integrating information the same way, recent direct contact contributes most to negative attitudes among groups whose contact with government agents is least negatively valanced. While interactions with the American carceral state divide opinions considerably among White Americans and women, adulthood contact for Black Americans, especially Black men, appears but “a drop in the ocean” of political life.

美国黑人和白人在刑事监禁体系（carceral state）议题上的分歧已有充分实证支撑，但其背后的成因却远未明晰。本研究依托群体层级理论（group hierarchy theory）与国家在维系群体从属/支配地位中的作用，提出理论阐释：成年初显期内的社会化经历与社会接触差异，会导致不同种族群体以及种族内部的性别子群体形成差异化的先验信念（priors）。这些差异化的初始认知起点，决定了个体如何将近期接触获得的新信息融入自身的信念体系之中。本研究基于覆盖超1.1万名受访者的调查数据发现，并非所有群体对信息的整合路径都完全一致：近期直接接触会对那些与政府执法人员接触时负面体验最弱的群体，产生最强的负面态度塑造作用。尽管与美国刑事监禁体系的互动在白人群体与女性群体中引发了显著的观点分歧，但成年初显期的接触经历对于非裔美国人——尤其是非裔男性而言——在其政治生活中却仅如"沧海一粟"。