Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation

A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma’s habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species’ occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil.

完整原生植被与人为改造植被镶嵌分布的景观，可为美洲豹（Puma concolor）这类顶级捕食者提供关键栖息地，同时避免因级联营养相互作用对其他物种及生态过程产生负面影响。本研究以巴西最发达的区域——圣保罗州为研究区，探讨植被恢复情景对美洲豹栖息地适宜性的影响。本研究基于美洲豹的出现记录数据，构建融入植被恢复情景的物种分布模型，以实现三大目标：1）绘制巴西东南部圣保罗州内美洲豹的栖息地适宜性分布图；2）解析与该物种栖息地适宜性密切相关的环境变量的相对贡献度；3）将预测的栖息地适宜性投影至未来原生植被恢复情景中。本研究采用最大熵（Maximum Entropy）算法，基于7个互不相关的环境变量以及342条无自相关的仅存在型记录构建模型，其测试AUC值为0.84±0.0228。模型中权重最高的环境变量依次为原生植被占比（正向影响）、海拔（正向影响）以及道路密度（负向影响）。植被恢复情景下的模型投影结果，印证了美洲豹与原生植被之间的强正向关联。该投影结果还在高度森林砍伐的区域中，识别出一批新的美洲豹高适宜性栖息地（存在概率>0.5）。当私有土地按照巴西森林法规定的原生植被最低覆盖要求（20%）完成景观恢复后，全州范围内的高适宜性栖息地占比将从5.3%提升至8.5%。本研究凸显了景观规划手段对改善美洲豹及其他物种的保护前景的重要意义，该手段不仅涵盖保护区的设立与管理，还包括私有土地上的栖息地恢复工作。尤为重要的是，本研究结果可为巴西圣保罗州的环境政策制定与土地利用规划提供科学参考。