Políticas de emprego em economias semi-industrializado

ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to analyze economic policy options to foster economic growth and the absorption of unemployment in the short run in open semi-industrialized economies. We take into account the existence of idle capacity, and we postulate that at least part of these capacities could be put to use in the short run, stimulating output growth even as equilibrium in the trade balance is maintained. We emphasize the necessity to combine competitiveness of the real exchange with price stability and with a fair distribution of income. We thus propose to counterbalance the negative effects of an increase in the exchange rate on workers’ purchasing power, with compensation achieved either through direct subsidies or reduction in the Value Added Tax for basic goods. With two econometric exercises carried out for Brazil and Mexico we empirically analyze the basic hypothesis of this paper.

摘要 本文的核心研究目标为剖析开放型半工业化经济体中，用以推动短期经济增长与吸纳失业人口的经济政策选择。我们考量到闲置产能的客观存在，并假设其中至少有一部分可在短期内投入使用，在维持贸易收支均衡的同时刺激产出增长。我们着重强调，需将实际汇率竞争力、物价稳定与收入公平分配三者有机结合。据此，我们提出可通过对基本商品给予直接补贴或降低增值税（Value Added Tax）的方式进行补偿，以抵消汇率上调对劳动者购买力造成的负面影响。我们针对巴西与墨西哥开展了两项计量经济学分析，以此对本文的核心假说展开实证检验。