Urban structure and population mobility: implications for social distance and dissemination of COVID-19

Abstract The world has witnessed the rapid spread of confirmed cases of acute respiratory syndrome through coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19). In the first months of the pandemic, statistics indicate that large cities have become prominent places of contagion and dissemination of COVID-19. In view of this, the present study offers arguments that assist in the construction and preliminary assessment of three hypotheses: 1) the urban structure and the organization of cities interfere in social distancing rates and, therefore, in the rate of contagion of the disease; 2) in cities, the way in which transport system is structured plays an important role in the pace of dissemination of COVID-19; 3) the pandemic and practices of physical and social distancing alter patterns of intra-urban mobility. National and regional data available from official agencies and other empirical studies on COVID-19 are analyzed in the light of theoretical studies on urban mobility. Then, using the inductive method, an association of these data is made with the different city models (compact vs. sprawled), considering, in particular, aspects of urban mobility. The arguments developed in this study seem to corroborate the central issues of the hypotheses presented in this work. It is necessary to develop models that incorporate these elements to advance in understanding the pandemic and elements that help in the construction of cities more resilient to phenomena such as COVID-19.摘要 全球范围内，由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2，即COVID-19）引发的急性呼吸综合征确诊病例曾快速蔓延传播。在疫情暴发初期的数月间，统计数据显示大城市已成为COVID-19病毒传播与感染的核心场所。 有鉴于此，本研究针对三项假说展开论证并完成初步评估：其一，城市结构与城市组织模式会对社交距离措施的落实力度产生影响，进而作用于疾病感染率；其二，城市交通系统的架构方式对COVID-19的传播速度具有关键影响；其三，疫情背景下的物理与社交隔离措施会改变城区内部的出行流动模式。 本研究结合城市流动相关的理论研究，对官方机构公开的国家级、区域级COVID-19相关数据，以及其他新冠疫情实证研究数据开展分析。随后，借助归纳法，结合城市流动的相关维度，将上述数据与不同城市发展模式（紧凑型城市与蔓延型城市）建立关联。 本研究提出的论证似乎能够佐证本文所提三项假说的核心论点。未来有必要构建纳入上述要素的研究模型，以深化对本次疫情的认知，并助力打造更能抵御COVID-19这类公共卫生事件的韧性城市。