Multiplex network reconstruction for the coupled spatial diffusion of infodemic and pandemic of COVID-19

The pandemic of COVID-19 witnessed a massive infodemic with the public being bombarded with vast quantities of information. The spreading of neutral and highly accurate reports can guide the public to self-protect and reduce the pandemic. Mis- and dis-information would intrigue panic and high exposure risk to epidemic. Although the infodemic has attracted attentions from the academia, it is still not known to what degree and in which direction the information flows contribute to the COVID-19 pandemic. To fill the gap, we apply network reconstruction techniques to rebuild the hidden multiplex network of information and COVID-19 spreading by which we aim at quantifying the interaction between the propagation of information and the spatial outbreak of COVID-19, and delineate between the positive and negative impact of information on the pandemic. By differentiating the types of media that participated in the information process, we find that in the early stage of COVID-19 pandemic, infodemic does play a critical role to amplify the risk of virus outbreak in China and the risk is even larger for those highly developed regions. Compared to the old-fashion media, the new mobile platforms impose a greater risk to reinforce the positive feedback between infodemic and COVID-19 pandemic.

伴随COVID-19大流行而来的，是一场大规模的信息疫情（infodemic），公众被海量信息所裹挟。中立且准确度极高的报道能够引导公众开展自我防护，助力疫情防控；而虚假与错误信息则会引发公众恐慌，提升疫情暴露风险。尽管信息疫情已受到学术界的关注，但目前仍未明确：信息传播的规模与方向，在多大程度上、以何种方式对COVID-19大流行产生影响。为填补这一研究空白，本研究采用网络重构技术，重建了信息传播与COVID-19传播的隐藏多层网络，旨在量化信息传播与COVID-19空间暴发之间的相互作用，并厘清信息对疫情的正负向影响。通过区分参与信息传播的媒体类型，研究发现：在COVID-19大流行早期，信息疫情确实对中国的病毒暴发风险起到了放大作用，且高度发达地区的风险增幅更为显著；相较于传统媒体，新兴移动平台更易强化信息疫情与COVID-19大流行之间的正向反馈循环。