Christopher Dictus: Crowdsourced Forecasting in Support of Government Foresight
收藏Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development2026-02-07 收录
下载链接：
https://www.oecd.org/en/events/2025/12/christopher-dictus-crowdsourced-forecasting-in-support-of-government-foresight.html
下载链接
链接失效反馈官方服务：
资源简介：
Policymakers, analysts, and the intelligence community frequently confront complex, emerging challenges that test their best analytical techniques. However, individual experts often struggle when it comes to predicting future events - one political psychologist has suggested that, on average, their accuracy is comparable to chance. Crowdsourced...
政策制定者、分析师以及情报界时常需要应对复杂且不断涌现的挑战，这些挑战往往对其最优分析手段构成考验。然而，个体专家在预测未来事件时往往力有不逮——一位政治心理学家曾指出，平均而言，他们的预测准确率仅与随机猜测不相上下。众包（Crowdsourced）……
