Christopher Dictus: Crowdsourced Forecasting in Support of Government Foresight
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Policymakers, analysts, and the intelligence community frequently confront complex, emerging challenges that test their best analytical techniques. However, individual experts often struggle when it comes to predicting future events - one political psychologist has suggested that, on average, their accuracy is comparable to chance. Crowdsourced...
政策制定者、分析师以及情报界时常需要应对复杂且不断涌现的挑战，这些挑战往往对其最优分析手段构成考验。然而，个体专家在预测未来事件时往往力有不逮——一位政治心理学家曾指出，平均而言，他们的预测准确率仅与随机猜测不相上下。众包（Crowdsourced）……
