Plot of benchmark regression results.

China’s rural revitalization strategy has expanded non-agricultural employment opportunities for rural residents. This has directly raised farmers’ incomes and household expenditures, which in turn has contributed to the upgrading of industrial structure. Using provincial data for 2012–2021, our study investigates how this employment transition affects industrial development. The effect of rural residents’ consumption expenditures on this relationship is also explored through a linkage model to help measure the extent of the impact. This study further explores the regional differences in this effect and its robustness. The findings suggest that non-farm employment significantly contributes to industrial structural upgrading. However, this effect is not consistent across regions. Moreover, rural residents’ consumption plays a pivotal role in this relationship. Governments should therefore encourage more non-farm jobs, stimulate domestic demand and use rural consumption as a key growth catalyst, especially after the demographic dividend disappears. It is also important to take into account regional nuances in policy formulation and make adjustments to cater for these differences to prevent any potential imbalances.

中国乡村振兴战略（rural revitalization strategy）为农村居民拓展了非农就业（non-agricultural employment）机会。此举直接提升了农户收入与家庭消费支出，进而推动产业结构升级。本研究采用2012-2021年省级面板数据，考察该就业转型对产业发展的影响，并通过联动模型探究农村居民消费支出在该关联中的作用，以量化其影响程度。本研究进一步分析了该效应的区域差异与稳健性。研究结果表明，非农就业可显著促进产业结构升级，但该效应在不同区域间并不一致。此外，农村居民消费在该影响路径中发挥关键作用。在人口红利（demographic dividend）消退后，政府应鼓励更多非农就业岗位，刺激内需，并将农村消费作为经济增长的核心催化剂。同时，政策制定需充分考量区域差异，进行针对性调整以防范潜在的发展失衡。