The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms

China supplied 4.1% of the global agro-food exports in 2019, which is worth $65 billion in sales. The vulnerability of this sector to climatic factors has been growing with climate change that not only affects the costs of primary products but may also affect the costs of processing by reducing input productivity. Existing studies have examined the impacts of a changing climate on yields of major crops, but the sensitivity of the food processing sector to rising temperatures has not been assessed. Here we show, using a rich firm-level data set of food processing firms and daily weather in China for the 1998–2007 period, that accounting profits of Chinese food processing firms exhibited non-linear responses to temperature changes, peaking at a daily average temperature of 21–24°C and declining sharply at higher temperatures. Higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects – raising final-good inventory levels, hurting innovation activity, and reducing industrial output by decreasing TFP, investment in capital and capital stock, all of which caused the adverse impacts of higher temperatures on profits. If no additional adaptation is undertaken, the total profits and output of Chinese food processing firms are projected to decline annually by 15–25% and 14–22%, respectively, under RCP8.5 of the global climate models HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M by 2080.

2019年，中国占全球农产品食品出口总额的4.1%，出口销售额达650亿美元。随着气候变化，该产业对气候因素的脆弱性日益加剧：气候变化不仅会影响初级产品的成本，还会通过降低投入品生产率推高加工环节成本。现有研究多聚焦于气候变化对主要农作物单产的影响，但尚未有研究评估食品加工产业对气温上升的敏感性。本研究依托1998-2007年中国食品加工企业的海量企业级数据集与逐日气象数据，研究发现中国食品加工企业的会计利润对气温变化呈现非线性响应：当日均气温处于21-24℃时利润达到峰值，而气温进一步升高时利润会大幅下滑。气温升高会产生多维度负面影响：推高产成品库存水平、抑制创新活动，并通过降低全要素生产率(Total Factor Productivity)、固定资产投资与资本存量缩减工业产出，上述效应共同导致了高温对企业利润的不利影响。若不采取额外的适应措施，到2080年，在全球气候模型HadGEM2-ES与NorESM1-M的典型浓度路径8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5)情景下，中国食品加工企业的总利润与工业产出预计将分别每年下降15%-25%与14%-22%。