Impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency: evidence from China

ABSTRACT: Agricultural ecological efficiency is of great value to the government’s agricultural policy formulation. Research on the factors affecting agricultural ecological efficiency can provide support for the formation of countermeasures to improve agricultural ecological efficiency. Existing research has not conducted an in-depth analysis of the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency, and there is a lack of relevant research on the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency. This article is based on the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2018, using the SBM model that considers undesired output, entropy method, Tobit model and other models and methods to measure agricultural ecological efficiency and urbanization comprehensive index, and analyze the impact of urbanization comprehensive index and urbanization indicators on agricultural ecological efficiency. The research results are as follows: 1) The overall agricultural ecological efficiency in China’s 30 provinces and cities has been increasing from 2009 to 2018. The eastern region has the highest agricultural ecological efficiency, followed by the western region, and the central and northeastern regions have relatively low values; 2) The comprehensive urbanization index of China’s 30 provinces and cities continued to grow from 2009 to 2018.The level of urbanization in the eastern region is the highest, in the central region has increased rapidly from 2009 to 2018, and in the western and northeastern regions is relatively low; 3) The overall increase in urbanization can promote the improvement of agricultural ecological efficiency. The impact of specific urbanization indicators on agricultural ecological efficiency is complex. Therefore, discussing the impact of urbanization on agricultural ecological efficiency cannot be considered from a single aspect, but should be analyzed from multiple perspectives.

摘要：农业生态效率对政府制定农业政策具有重要参考价值。探究农业生态效率的影响因素，可为制定提升农业生态效率的对策提供理论支撑。现有研究尚未对城镇化影响农业生态效率的机制展开深入剖析，且该主题的相关研究仍较为匮乏。本文基于中国2009-2018年30个省市的面板数据，采用考虑非期望产出的SBM模型（SBM Model）、熵权法（Entropy Method）、Tobit模型（Tobit Model）等多种计量分析方法与模型，分别测度农业生态效率与城镇化综合指数，并分析城镇化综合指数及各细分城镇化指标对农业生态效率的影响。

研究结果如下：
1) 2009-2018年，中国30个省市的农业生态效率整体呈稳步上升态势，东部地区农业生态效率最高，西部地区次之，中部与东北地区相对偏低；
2) 2009-2018年，中国30个省市的城镇化综合指数持续攀升，东部地区城镇化水平位居全国首位，中部地区城镇化增速最快，西部与东北地区城镇化水平相对较低；
3) 城镇化整体水平的提升可显著促进农业生态效率的改善，但各具体城镇化指标对农业生态效率的影响较为复杂。因此，探究城镇化对农业生态效率的影响不能仅从单一维度考量，而应从多视角展开分析。