Assessment of the Water Budget in Madeira River Basin Simulated by the Eta Regional Climate And MGB Large-Scale Hydrological Models

Abstract Downscaling climate simulation for present climate (1960-2005) based on the Eta Regional Climate Model and MGB Large-scale Hydrological Model, forced by Brazilian Model of the Terrestrial System (BESM-AO 2.5), was carried out. The objective of this work is assessment the performance of the Eta regional model and MGB-IPH in the representation of the components of the water budget in Madeira River basin. The moisture sink characteristic (P> E) was simulated by the regional model. In the terrestrial branch, the MGB-IPH hydrological model was able to represent the annual cycle of discharge, water level and floodplain inundation. The performance of the hydrological model and the regional model was satisfactory in the simulation of the seasonal dynamics of hydrological processes and water budget in Madeira river basin, indicating that the hydrological model is a useful tool for studies of climatic variability, changes in climate and land use and for hydrological forecasting operational systems in the Amazon basin.

本研究以巴西陆地系统模型（Brazilian Model of the Terrestrial System, BESM-AO 2.5）作为强迫场，基于Eta区域气候模型（Eta Regional Climate Model）与MGB大尺度水文模型（MGB Large-scale Hydrological Model），开展了1960-2005年当前气候下的气候降尺度研究。本研究旨在评估Eta区域气候模型与MGB-IPH水文模型在马代拉河（Madeira River）流域水量平衡各组分表征中的性能表现。结果显示，区域模型成功模拟了水汽汇特征（降水量P＞蒸发量E）；在陆地水文环节中，MGB-IPH水文模型能够准确再现径流、水位与河漫滩淹没的年循环过程。两款模型在马代拉河流域水文过程与水量平衡的季节动态模拟中均表现良好，表明该水文模型可作为亚马逊流域气候变异性研究、气候与土地利用变化研究以及水文业务预报系统的有效工具。