Replication Data for: When Elections Wait: A Cross-National Analysis of Election Postponement During the COVID-19 Pandemic

During the first 2 years of the coronavirus pandemic, over 150 countries had scheduled elections, but approximately half of them had to be postponed due to the pandemic. Why were some elections postponed while others were not? Despite its impact on the election calendar and democratic accountability, election postponement has received surprisingly little scholarly attention. In this study, I investigate the conditions under which elections are more likely to be delayed. Utilizing a comprehensive cross-national dataset encompassing election schedules worldwide, COVID-19-related factors, and other societal and institutional characteristics, I provide the first systematic examination of election postponement during the first 2 years of the pandemic. The empirical analysis reveals that national elections are less likely to be postponed compared to second-order elections such as subnational and special elections. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the momentum of the pandemic plays a significant role, and effective pandemic management and robust healthcare infrastructures decrease the likelihood of election postponement. On the other hand, institutional constraints have little impact. By shedding light on the factors driving election postponement, this study enhances our understanding of how crises can shape democratic processes.

在新冠疫情暴发后的头两年间，全球共有超过150个国家规划了选举日程，但其中约半数因疫情被迫推迟。为何部分选举得以按原计划举行，而另一部分却被迫推迟？尽管选举推迟对选举日程安排与民主问责制均造成了显著影响，但学界对该议题的关注却出乎意料地匮乏。本研究旨在探究选举更易被推迟的前置条件。本研究依托一套涵盖全球选举日程安排、新冠疫情相关影响因素以及其他社会与制度特征的综合性跨国数据集，首次对疫情头两年间的选举推迟现象开展了系统性考察。实证分析结果显示，相较于地方选举、特别选举等次级选举（second-order elections），全国性选举的推迟概率更低。此外，研究表明疫情态势发挥着显著作用，而有效的疫情防控管理与健全的医疗基础设施会降低选举推迟的发生概率；而制度约束对选举推迟的影响则微乎其微。本研究通过厘清驱动选举推迟的各类影响因素，深化了我们对危机如何塑造民主进程的认知。