Quantifying the potential for consumer-oriented policy to reduce European and foreign carbon emissions

The EU Carbon-CAP project assembled a comprehensive portfolio of consumer initiatives in order to assess the potential total impact of consumer options on national carbon footprints. Existing evaluations of behavioural change have focused primarily on direct energy reductions, typically in households and buildings. However, changes in consumer demand have deeper impacts via their upstream supply chains. The consumer behaviour options considered in the portfolio focus on green household initiatives. Combining existing micro-level studies with a multiregional input-output economic model, we estimated the potential efficacy and uptake of each behaviour across the European Union (EU). The results suggest that adopting these consumer options could reduce carbon footprints by approximately 25%. While 75% of this is delivered as reductions in emissions within Europe, one-quarter of the effect is delivered as a reduced imported carbon footprint, due to changes in the composition of imports. <b>Key policy insights</b>Consumer initiatives can have a big effect on embodied carbon imports, in addition to domestic impactsWe connect a portfolio of ∼90 green behaviour changes to a global supply chain database to model impacts holisticallyWe estimate that with reasonable levels of adoption green consumer actions can reduce the EU CO2 footprint by 25%A quarter of this effect is delivered in the form of reduced embodied emissions in imports Consumer initiatives can have a big effect on embodied carbon imports, in addition to domestic impacts We connect a portfolio of ∼90 green behaviour changes to a global supply chain database to model impacts holistically We estimate that with reasonable levels of adoption green consumer actions can reduce the EU CO2 footprint by 25% A quarter of this effect is delivered in the form of reduced embodied emissions in imports

欧盟碳-CAP（EU Carbon-CAP）项目搭建了一套覆盖全面的消费者举措体系，旨在评估各类消费者选择对国家碳足迹的潜在整体影响。现有行为变革评估主要聚焦于直接节能，通常针对家庭与建筑场景。但消费者需求的变化会通过上游供应链产生更为深远的影响。本研究组合中的消费者行为选项均聚焦于绿色家庭行动。研究结合已有的微观层面（micro-level）研究与多区域投入产出（multiregional input-output）经济模型，估算了欧盟（EU）范围内各项举措的潜在有效性与采用率。结果显示，推广这些消费者选择可使碳足迹降低约25%：其中75%的减排效果来自欧盟境内的排放削减，剩余四分之一的减排效果则体现为进口碳足迹的降低，这源于进口商品结构的变化。<b>核心政策启示</b>消费者举措除可产生国内减排影响外，对隐含碳（embodied carbon）进口亦能产生显著作用；本研究将约90项绿色行为变革举措与全球供应链数据库相结合，实现了影响的全链条建模；经估算，在合理的采用率下，绿色消费者行动可使欧盟二氧化碳足迹降低25%；其中四分之一的减排效果体现为进口商品隐含排放（embodied emissions）的削减。消费者举措除可产生国内减排影响外，对隐含碳（embodied carbon）进口亦能产生显著作用；本研究将约90项绿色行为变革举措与全球供应链数据库相结合，实现了影响的全链条建模；经估算，在合理的采用率下，绿色消费者行动可使欧盟二氧化碳足迹降低25%；其中四分之一的减排效果体现为进口商品隐含排放（embodied emissions）的削减。