Offensive Realism and the Pacific Ocean Understanding Geopolitical Rivalries through Mearsheimer Lens.pdf

The basic research question of this study will be to examine the nature of power dynamics in the Pacific Ocean Region, where power competitions and rivalry have been rising among international and non-international actors. The purposes are to analyze the relations of rivals, which depend on the change of power dominance, geographical issues, resources, and threats in the sea. The research question of the study to focus is: why have geopolitical tensions accentuated in the Pacific Ocean? In this context, the method of studying the South China Sea territorial disputes involve use of both qualitative and quantitative data from both officially published policies and documents, as well as other methods such as face to face interview with some of the policy experts and use of geospatial data. In this paper, the theory of choice is the Offensive realism using analysis of the famous strategist John Mearsheimer to analyze the behavior of states, security dilemma and the quest for hegemony in a certain region. This research is important because Pacific Ocean is vital, is security and economical interests to global markets. Further studies should focus on the effects of the new technologies in continuation of the power relations in the region. These include territorial disputes and resource competition, causing security competition; coupled with increase of China, states strive for maximum power and influence. Thus, it is for the main reason that the Pacific Ocean is a vital theatre for power contestations that define not only the regional political dynamics but the global ones as well that require constant observation and collective effort to be maintained.

本研究的核心基础议题为探究太平洋地区权力动态的本质——当前该区域内国际与非国际行为体间的权力竞争与对抗正呈愈演愈烈之势。本研究旨在剖析依赖权力主导地位变迁、地理议题、海洋资源与海上威胁的对手间关系。本次研究聚焦的核心问题为：太平洋地区的地缘政治紧张局势为何已然加剧？在此研究脉络下，针对南海领土争端的研究将采用定性与定量结合的研究方法，数据来源包括官方发布的政策文件，同时辅以与部分政策专家的面对面访谈、地理空间数据等其他研究手段。本研究选用进攻性现实主义（Offensive realism）作为分析框架，依托知名战略学家约翰·米尔斯海默（John Mearsheimer）的理论，对国家行为、安全困境（security dilemma）以及特定区域内的霸权追求展开分析。本研究具备重要学术价值，因太平洋地区关乎全球市场的安全与经济利益，是至关重要的战略区域。后续研究可聚焦于新技术对该区域权力关系的持续性影响，此类影响包括引发安全竞争的领土争端与资源争夺；伴随中国实力的提升，各国均致力于谋求最大化的权力与影响力。正因如此，太平洋地区是定义区域乃至全球政治动态的关键权力博弈场域，需要持续的观测与集体协作方能维持其秩序稳定。