predicted_summary_stats_ecoli
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The published dataset shows the summary statistics of predicted <em>E.coli </em>concentrations at the Seine river in Paris at Pont d'Iena. The data is provided on a log<sub>10 </sub>scale and shows the geometric mean and the predicted upper percentiles, which can be compared to the thresholds provided by the European Bathing Water Directive. Model predictions have a root mean squared error of 0.25 and a coverage rate of 97%, 95%, and 98% for the ratio of test data points falling below the 95th, the 90th percentile, and inside the 95% prediction interval. However, model predictions are very uncertain and are not able to accurately predict variations of measured <em>E.coli</em> concentrations. Therefore, the model is not able to discriminate between periods of good and impaired water quality and always predicts "poor" water quality. The used features were not suitable to accurately predict the observed concentrations. Further model improvements are considered necessary.
