Replication Data for: Unequal Turnout among the Newly Enfranchised: The Role of Political Efficacy

Unequal political participation increasingly challenges democracies. This turnout gap is particularly large among younger voters – with severe implications for future developments of democratic representation, legitimacy, and quality. This article focuses on the role of political efficacy in explaining unequal turnout among newly enfranchised citizens. We argue that internal political efficacy is particularly important for turnout among the newly enfranchised from lower class backgrounds as they lack alternative mobilizing factors – such as politically aware and active parents, political knowledge, and mobilizing networks. Furthermore, we argue that once they successfully turned out in their first election, they are as likely as those from higher class backgrounds to turn out in their second election. We empirically test these arguments using original longitudinal data on newly enfranchised citizens from three German Federal States (Bundesländer). Overall, our results support the argument: Internal efficacy is a stronger predictor of first turnout among young adults from disadvantaged backgrounds compared to those from more advantaged backgrounds; but those who did turn out are as likely to turn out in their second election as those with higher class backgrounds. This highlights the relevance of political efficacy in the (re-)production of persisting political inequality.

不平等的政治参与正日益对民主制度构成挑战。这一投票率差距在年轻选民群体中尤为显著，其对民主代议、合法性与民主质量的未来发展均会产生严重影响。本文聚焦于政治效能感（political efficacy）在解释新获选举权公民之间投票率不平等现象中的作用。我们认为，对于来自底层阶级背景的新获选举权公民而言，内部政治效能感对其投票行为的影响尤为关键——这类群体缺乏替代性的动员因素，例如具备政治意识且活跃的父母、政治知识储备以及动员性社会网络。此外，我们提出，若这类群体在首次选举中成功完成投票，其在第二次选举中的投票概率将与来自上层阶级背景的公民不相上下。我们采用来自德国三个联邦州（Bundesländer）的新获选举权公民原始纵向数据，对上述论点进行了实证检验。总体而言，我们的研究结果验证了上述论点：相较于处境更优的群体，内部政治效能感对弱势背景青年群体的首次投票行为具有更强的预测力；但完成首次投票的群体，其第二次选举的投票概率与上层阶级背景者并无显著差异。这一发现凸显了政治效能感在持续政治不平等的（再）生产过程中的重要意义。