Replication Data for What are the impacts of counter-SOC awareness raising strategies?

Counter serious and organised crime (SOC) strategies often include an awareness-raising element. Such messaging aims to build support for counter-SOC efforts, and intolerance for organised criminal activity. However, a growing body of research suggests that raising awareness to ‘social bads’ like SOC may risk backfiring by encouraging pessimistic attitudes about whether they can be controlled and could even nudge people to agree with populist narratives which argue that political outsiders represent the only hope for tackling systemic problems. A nationally representative survey experiment in Albania was conducted to test, for the first time, the impact of messages about SOC. Typical of counter-SOC messaging in practice, the first message emphasised the harms SOC causes. The second was more positive, highlighting high levels of social disapproval of SOC, a theme that social norms research suggests may be effective. We find that the first message backfires by reducing confidence in law enforcement and encouraging support for populist ideas. The second message is unexpectedly found to also encourage support for a populist sentiment, while having no positive impact on attitudes about law enforcement. This suggests that even positive messaging about ‘social bads’ can risk triggering unwanted responses.

打击严重有组织犯罪（Serious and Organised Crime，以下简称SOC）的战略通常包含提升公众认知的宣传环节。此类宣传旨在为反SOC工作凝聚公众共识，并强化公众对有组织犯罪活动的零容忍态度。然而，日益增多的研究表明，针对SOC这类“社会公害”开展认知提升宣传，可能会适得其反：不仅会让公众对这类犯罪能否被遏制产生悲观态度，甚至可能引导民众认同民粹主义叙事——这类叙事声称政治圈外人士才是解决系统性问题的唯一希望。本研究首次针对SOC相关宣传的影响开展实证检验，在阿尔巴尼亚完成了一项全国代表性抽样调查实验。本次实验设置了两类符合实际反SOC宣传惯例的宣传内容：第一类宣传侧重强调SOC造成的危害，这也是实际中常见的反SOC宣传模式；第二类宣传则更为积极，着重指出社会大众普遍强烈反对SOC，而社会规范领域的研究表明，这类宣传主题或能起到良好效果。研究结果显示，第一类宣传适得其反：不仅降低了公众对执法部门的信任度，还提升了民众对民粹主义观点的支持度。令人意外的是，第二类宣传同样提升了民众的民粹主义情绪支持度，且未对公众的执法信任态度产生积极影响。这表明，即便针对“社会公害”开展积极宣传，仍有可能引发预期之外的负面反应。