Replication Data for: Targeting the government in the referendum: The aborted 2016 Italian constitutional reform

This study investigates the factors explaining voting in the 2016 Italian referendum on constitutional reform. As we show through voting alignments within the Parliament and key aspects of the electoral campaign, this was a case where the government took the leadership of the entire referendum process, transforming it into a plebiscite. Within this context, we hypothesize that key elements explaining voting choices follow a government-support vs. opposition dynamics. Employing ITANES pre/post-referendum survey, we estimate the effects of factors increasing predictability (e.g. party closeness, ideology, social cleavage) or uncertainty (e.g. government performance, the economy) of voting choices. The resulting logistic regression models show that the leading role of the government in the referendum reshapes the impact of factors explaining voting choices. While some lose significance, others follow a pro- or anti-government logic.

本研究旨在探讨解释2016年意大利宪法改革公投投票行为的影响因素。借助议会内部的投票立场一致性与竞选活动的关键特征，本研究发现此次公投由政府主导全部流程，并将其转化为一场全民公决。在此背景下，本研究提出假设：解释投票选择的核心要素遵循支持政府与反对政府的对立动态逻辑。本研究采用意大利全国选举研究（ITANES）公投前后的调查数据，对提升投票选择可预测性（如政党亲疏、意识形态、社会分裂）或加剧投票不确定性（如政府履职表现、经济状况）的各类因素的影响进行了评估。最终得到的逻辑回归模型结果显示，政府在此次公投中的主导作用重塑了各类解释投票选择的因素的影响效应：部分因素的显著性不复存在，其余因素则遵循亲政府或反政府的逻辑。