Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

Objective: The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.Methods: In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957–2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.Results: Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P P P P P Conclusions: Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.研究目标：本研究旨在探明1975年以来与全球强制儿童约束装置法规（Mandatory Child Restraint Laws, ChRLs）采纳相关的各类影响因素。不对，修正：研究目标：本研究旨在探明1975年以来全球范围内强制儿童约束装置法规（Mandatory Child Restraint Laws, ChRLs）的全球采纳进程及其关联影响因素。 研究方法：为明确解释全球强制ChRLs采纳行为的驱动因素，本研究采用威布尔模型（Weibull models）开展实证分析。本次分析覆盖170个国家，观测周期为1957年至2013年，共获得5146条有效观测样本。本研究的因变量为首次采纳强制儿童约束装置法规的时间点；自变量分为三类：其一为全球层面因素，包括世界卫生组织（World Health Organization, WHO）与世界银行（World Bank, WB）联合发起的全球道路安全运动、《日内瓦道路交通公约》（Geneva Convention on Road Traffic），以及联合国（United Nations, UN）1958年《车辆协定》（1958 Vehicle Agreement）；其二为区域层面因素，包括欧洲运输安全委员会（European Transport Safety Council）的成立，以及是否为英联邦（Commonwealth）成员国；其三为国家层面因素，包括人口规模、人均国内生产总值（gross domestic product per capita, GDP）、政治暴力水平、道路安全类非政府组织（nongovernmental organizations, NGOs）的存在情况，以及道路安全监管机构的设立情况。此外，本研究将城市化水平设为控制变量（control variable）。为探究区域层面的政策动态差异，本研究还分别针对非洲、亚洲、欧洲、北美、拉丁美洲、加勒比地区以及英联邦区域构建威布尔模型开展分析。 研究结果：全样本威布尔模型的实证估计结果显示，共有2项全球层面因素与2项国家层面因素与该政策的采纳行为存在显著相关性。其中，可解释政策采纳的全球层面因素为2004年后推行的WHO与WB全球道路安全运动（P P P P P 研究结论：全样本模型的分析结果表明，2004年后推行的WHO与WB全球道路安全运动对ChRLs的推广起到了显著推动作用。此外，亚洲、欧洲与北美等区域属于政策早期采纳者，这是因为其特定的区域与国家特征使其在2004年前便推出了该项政策。其中，欧洲运输安全委员会的成立对推动ChRLs的落地起到了关键性作用。因此，为创造更有利的条件以在发展滞后区域更快推广道路安全相关政策，应持续推进全球层面的道路安全工作，并鼓励建立区域级道路安全组织。最后，ChRLs的政策趋同案例表明，若要更全面地评估政策扩散（policy diffusion）进程，需从分析维度区分全球与区域层面的扩散机制。