The Status of Salmon in Scotland

The conservation status of 173 wild Atlantic salmon stocks (rivers or small groups of rivers) is assessed annually within Scotland according to how likely it is their numbers are at sustainable levels as part of the Salmon Conservation Regulations process (https://www.gov.scot/policies/salmon-and-recreational-fisheries/conserva...). Most stocks are in poor conservation status (less than 60% chance of meeting their conservation limit) and these are spread throughout the country. Stocks in good conservation status (at least 80% chance of meeting their conservation limit) tend to be located in east Scotland and contain the majority of the total number of salmon estimated to be in Scottish rivers.

Since 2017, the total number of stocks in good status has declined while the number in poor status has increased. Additionally, many individual stocks in good conservation status have experienced significant declines in the number of returning salmon, highlighting the need for precautionary management.

Since the 1970s, the total estimated number of salmon returning to Scottish rivers has declined from around 1 million to 400,000. Over the same period the number of spawners increased from around 380,000 in the early 1970s to a high point of 670,000 in 2010 before declining to around 350,000 in recent years.

根据《鲑鱼保护条例》（Salmon Conservation Regulations）流程要求，苏格兰每年会对173个野生大西洋鲑鱼种群（单个河流或小型河流群）的保护现状进行评估，评估维度为其种群数量达到可持续水平的可能性，相关公开链接为：https://www.gov.scot/policies/salmon-and-recreational-fisheries/conserva...。目前多数种群的保护现状不佳——其种群数量达到保护限值的概率不足60%，且此类种群遍布苏格兰全境。保护现状优良的种群（种群数量达到保护限值的概率不低于80%）则多集中于苏格兰东部，其估算的苏格兰河流内鲑鱼总数量占据全国绝大多数。

自2017年以来，保护现状优良的种群总数持续下滑，而保护现状不佳的种群数量则不断攀升。此外，诸多保护现状优良的单个种群的洄游鲑鱼数量均出现了显著下降，这凸显了实施预防性管理的迫切必要性。

自20世纪70年代以来，洄游至苏格兰河流的鲑鱼估算总数量已从约100万尾降至40万尾。同期，产卵亲鱼的数量则从20世纪70年代初的约38万尾升至2010年的峰值67万尾，随后在近年回落至约35万尾。