Replication Data for: Containing Large-Scale Criminal Violence through Internationalized Prosecution: How the Collaboration between the CICIG and Guatemala’s Law Enforcement Contributed to a Sustained Reduction in the Murder Rate

How do post-conflict societies contain large-scale criminal violence when state security forces that committed atrocities during a civil war remain unpunished and become key players in the criminal underworld? This article explores the impact on violence reduction of internationalized prosecution (IP): cooperation agreements between an international organization and a country’s public prosecutors to dismantle state-criminal networks through judicial action. We assess the IP process by which the United Nations–sponsored International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and Guatemala’s law enforcement dismantled 70 criminal structures led by death squads and the civil war military establishment. Using synthetic control models, we estimate that Guatemala’s IP process plausibly prevented the occurrence of between 20,000 and 30,000 homicides, from 2008 until 2019. Case studies show how IP contributed to violence reduction by removing criminal structures and deterring both state-criminal collusion and the state’s use of iron-fist militarized policies against crime.

在内战期间犯下暴行的国家安全部队未受惩处且成为犯罪集团核心参与者的背景下，冲突后社会应如何遏制大规模刑事暴力？本文探讨了国际化追诉（internationalized prosecution, IP）对暴力削减的作用机制：即国际组织与一国公诉机构通过司法行动瓦解国家-犯罪网络的合作协议。我们以联合国资助的危地马拉国际反对有罪不罚委员会（International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala, CICIG）与危地马拉执法机关共瓦解70个由行刑队及内战时期军方势力主导的犯罪组织这一IP进程为样本展开评估。通过合成控制法模型，我们估算得出：2008年至2019年间，危地马拉的IP进程可信地避免了2万至3万起凶杀案件的发生。案例研究揭示了IP推动暴力削减的路径：通过清除犯罪组织、遏制国家与犯罪势力的勾结，以及阻止国家采用铁腕军事化政策打击犯罪。