Results of DIF sub-indices.

This paper examines the nonlinear effects of Digital Inclusive Finance (DIF) on urban–rural integration (URI) using a provincial panel for mainland China (31 provinces, 2011–2023). We construct a multidimensional URI index and decompose DIF into coverage breadth (D1), usage depth (D2) and digitalization level (D3). Estimation proceeds with two-way fixed-effects models and Hansen-style panel threshold regressions with bootstrap inference; robustness checks include placebo tests and instrumental-variable specifications. The evidence shows that DIF’s impact on URI is regime-dependent: marginal returns are limited at low development levels but increase sharply once DIF and complementary institutional conditions cross empirically identified thresholds. Disaggregation reveals that usage depth (D2) consistently promotes integration, whereas the benefits of coverage (D1) and digitalization (D3) materialize mainly in digitally mature regimes. Traditional finance exhibits declining marginal contribution beyond its effective range, underlining the catalytic role of digital systems. We document heterogeneity across regions and show that negative baseline coefficients on openness and education reflect spatial concentration rather than intrinsic harms. The findings reconcile mixed results in prior work and imply that policy should be threshold-aware: prioritize foundational access where coverage is low, while in advanced contexts emphasize usage, platform interoperability, and regulatory safeguards to manage platform concentration and distributional risks.本文基于中国大陆31个省份2011—2023年的省级面板数据，考察数字普惠金融（Digital Inclusive Finance, DIF）对城乡融合（urban–rural integration, URI）的非线性影响。本文构建了多维城乡融合指数，并将数字普惠金融拆解为覆盖广度（coverage breadth, D1）、使用深度（usage depth, D2）与数字化水平（digitalization level, D3）三个维度。实证分析采用双向固定效应模型，以及带有自助法（Bootstrap）推断的Hansen面板门槛回归模型；稳健性检验包含安慰剂检验与工具变量设定。研究结果表明，数字普惠金融对城乡融合的影响具有门槛依赖性：在发展水平较低的阶段，其边际效应有限；而当数字普惠金融与互补性制度条件跨过经验识别出的门槛后，边际效应会显著提升。维度拆解分析显示，使用深度（D2）始终能够显著促进城乡融合，而覆盖广度（D1）与数字化水平（D3）的积极效应主要在数字化成熟阶段得以显现。传统金融的边际贡献在超出有效范围后呈现递减趋势，这凸显了数字化体系的催化作用。本文还揭示了区域异质性特征，并指出开放度与教育水平的基准负向系数反映的是空间集聚效应，而非其本身存在内在损害。本研究调和了现有文献中存在的不一致结论，并提出政策制定应具备门槛意识：在覆盖广度较低的地区优先推进基础普惠服务，而在数字化发展成熟的场景中，则应重点推动使用深度、平台互联互通，并完善监管保障以应对平台垄断与分配风险。