Baseline probability values and ranges (%) of variables used to construct the Markov model.

*The sensitivity of the case definition or laboratory test is based on the observed influenza outbreak compared to the “gold standard” (see text for details) and corresponds with value used in the Model simulations.#The number of exposed pilgrims on a particular day divided by the total susceptible population. In turn, the susceptible population is the total population excluding all pilgrims previously infected (and so regarded as immune) and those currently infected with influenza.