Vulnerability of cotton subjected to hail damage

This paper establishes the quantitative relationships between hail fall parameters and crop damages by examining the impacts of 49 hail hazard scenarios on cotton in the bud stage and boll stage. This study utilizes simulated cotton hail hazard to analyze the following data: hail size, hail fall density, and crop damages (i.e., defoliation rate, branch breaking rate, and the fruit falling rate). The results are as follows: 1) cotton vulnerability increased via an increase in crop damages as the hail hazard magnitude increased; 2) crop damages exhibit significant logistic relationships with hail diameter and hail fall density, and the fit was better at the bud stage than at the boll stage; 3) cotton is more vulnerable to hail hazard at the bud stage than at the boll stage, and the bud stage is a critical period for cotton hail disaster prevention and mitigation; and 4) damages to cotton plant at the bud stage and boll stage were less sensitive to hail size from hail fall density. Thus, we suggest that hail diameter can be used as the priority indicator to predict hail-induced crop damages. These results provide a sound basis for developing a comprehensive evaluation of hail damage in cotton, which is crucial for promoting sustainable cotton production. We recommend that the impacts of hail-induced crop damages on yield and fiber quality need to be addressed further in future studies.本研究通过分析49次冰雹灾害情景对蕾期和铃期棉花的影响，建立了降雹参数与作物受灾程度间的定量关联关系。本研究采用模拟棉花冰雹灾害场景，对以下数据展开分析：冰雹粒径、降雹密度，以及作物受灾指标（即脱叶率、枝条折断率与落果率）。研究结果如下：1）随着冰雹灾害强度提升，作物受灾程度加重，棉花受灾脆弱性随之升高；2）作物受灾程度与冰雹粒径、降雹密度均存在显著的逻辑斯蒂回归关联，且蕾期的拟合效果优于铃期；3）相较于铃期，蕾期棉花更易受冰雹灾害影响，蕾期是棉花冰雹灾害防控的关键时期；4）蕾期与铃期的棉花植株受灾程度对冰雹粒径的响应，均弱于对降雹密度的响应。据此，本研究建议可优先采用冰雹粒径作为预测冰雹致作物受灾的核心指标。本研究结果可为构建棉花冰雹灾害综合评估体系提供坚实依据，对推动棉花产业可持续生产具有重要意义。建议未来研究可进一步探讨冰雹致作物受灾对棉花产量与纤维品质的影响。