Data from: Use of opportunistic sightings and expert knowledge to predict and compare Whooping Crane stopover habitat

Predicting a species’ distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2−3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert-informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence-only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.

预测物种分布，有助于评估各类栖息地管理举措——例如依据《美国濒危物种法案》划定的关键栖息地，或是开展栖息地收购与修复工作。美洲鹤（Whooping Crane，学名*Grus americana*）是全球最珍稀的鸟类之一，其生存离不开栖息地保护与管理。我们构建了一套物种分布模型（Species Distribution Model，缩写SDM），可用于为美国内布拉斯加州境内的美洲鹤栖息地管理提供决策参考。我们整理了1988年至2012年间报告的407条美洲鹤集群偶然观测记录。绝大多数观测记录来自公众提交，因此构建能够考量抽样偏差的物种分布模型至关重要：部分迁徙停歇地的观测记录可能存在代表性不足的问题。为探究抽样偏差的影响，我们通过专家征询法构建了配套辅助数据集。借助所构建的物种分布模型，我们对内布拉斯加州北部的普拉特河中部河谷集约管理区域与尼奥布拉拉国家风景河开展了对比分析。研究结果显示，在迁徙高峰期，普拉特河中部河谷的单位面积美洲鹤种群丰度是尼奥布拉拉国家风景河的262.2倍（90%置信区间：40.2~3144.2）。尽管本研究仅对比了两处区域，但所构建的模型可用于评估内布拉斯加州境内的任意区域。此外，当存在抽样偏差问题且可获取专家知识时，本研究采用的基于专家知识的建模方法，可推广应用于偶然获取的仅存在观测数据集。