IPCC Climate Change Data: NIES99 A1a Model: 2080 Wind Speed

The model used here is a coupled ocean-atmosphere model that
consists of the CCSR/NIES atmospheric GCM, the CCSR ocean GCM, a
thermodynamic sea-ice model, and a river routing model
(Abe-Ouchi et al., 1996). The spatial resolution is T21 spectral
truncation (roughly 5.6 degrees latitude/longitude) and 20
vertical levels for the atmospheric part, and roughly 2.8
degrees horizontal grid and 17 vertical levels for the oceanic
part. Flux adjustment for atmosphere-ocean heat and water
exchange is applied to prevent a drift of the modelled climate.
The atmospheric model adopts a radiation scheme based on the
k-distribution, two-stream discrete ordinate method (DOM)
(Nakajima and Tanaka, 1986). This scheme can deal with
absorption, emission and scattering by gases, clouds and aerosol
particles in a consistent manner. In the calculation of sulphate
aerosol optical properties, the volumetric mode radius of the
sulphate particle in dry environment is assumed to be 0.2
micron. The hygroscopic growth of the sulphate is considered by
an empirical fit of d'Almeida et al. (1991). The vertical
distribution of the sulphate aerosol is assumed to be constant
in the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere. The concentrations of
greenhouse gases are represented by equivalent-CO2. Three
integrations are made for 200 model years (1890-2090). In the
control experiment (CTL), the globally uniform concentration of
greenhouse gases is kept constant at 345 ppmv CO2-equivalent and
the concentration of sulphate is set to zero. In the experiment
GG, the concentration of greenhouse gases is gradually
increased, while that of sulphate is set to zero. In the
experiments GS, the increase in anthropogenic sulphate as well
as that in greenhouse gases is given and the aerosol scattering
(the direct effect of aerosol) is explicitly represented in the
way described above. The indirect effect of aerosol is not
included in any experiment. The scenario of atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols is
given in accordance with Mitchell and Johns (1997). The increase
in greenhouse gases is based on the historical record from 1890
to 1990 and is increased by 1 percent / yr (compound) after
1990. For sulphate aerosols, geographical distributions of
sulphate loading for 1986 and 2050, which are estimated by a
sulphur cycle model (Langer and Rodhe, 1991), are used as basic
patterns. Based on global and annual mean sulphur emission
rates, the 1986 pattern is scaled for years before 1990; the
2050 pattern is scaled for years after 2050; and the pattern is
interpolated from the two basic ones for intermediate years to
give the time series of the distribution. The sulphur emission
rate in the future is based on the IPCC IS92a scenario. The
sulphate concentration is offset in our run so that it starts
from zero at 1890. The seasonal variation of sulphate
concentration is ignored. Discussion on the results of the
experiments will be found in Emori et al. (1999). Climate
sensitivity of the CCSR/NIES model derived by equilibrium runs
is estimated to be 3.5 degrees Celsius. Global-Mean Temperature,
Precipitation and CO2 Changes (w.r.t. 1961-90) for the CCSR/NIES model. From the IPCC website: The A1 Family storyline is a case of
rapid and successful economic development, in which regional
averages of income per capita converge - current distinctions
between poor and rich countries eventually dissolve. In this
scenario family, demographic and economic trends are closely
linked, as affluence is correlated with long life and small
families (low mortality and low fertility). Global population
grows to some nine billion by 2050 and declines to about seven
billion by 2100. Average age increases, with the needs of
retired people met mainly through their accumulated savings in
private pension systems. The global economy expands at an
average annual rate of about three percent to 2100. This is
approximately the same as average global growth since 1850,
although the conditions that lead to a global economic in
productivity and per capita incomes are unparalleled in history.
Income per capita reaches about US$21,000 by 2050. While the
high average level of income per capita contributes to a great
improvement in the overall health and social conditions of the
majority of people, this world is not without its problems. In
particular, many communities could face some of the problems of
social exclusion encountered by the wealthiest countries in the
20th century and in many places income growth could come with
increased pressure on the global commons. Energy and mineral
resources are abundant in this scenario family because of rapid
technical progress, which both reduce the resources need to
produce a given level of output and increases the economically
recoverable reserves. Final energy intensity (energy use per
unit of GDP) decreases at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent.
With the rapid increase in income, dietary patterns shift
initially significantly towards increased consumption of meat
and dairy products, but may decrease subsequently with
increasing emphasis on health of an aging society. High incomes
also translate into high car ownership, sprawling
suburbanization and dense transport networks, nationally and
internationally. Land prices increase faster than income per
capita. These factors along with high wages result in a
considerable intensification of agriculture. Three scenario
groups are considered in A1 scenario family reflecting the
uncertainty in development of energy sources and conversion
technologies in this rapidly changing world. Near-term
investment decisions may introduce long-term irreversibilities
into the market, with lock-in to one technological configuration
or another. The A1B scenario group is based on a balanced mix of
energy sources and has an intermediate level of CO2 emissions,
but depending on the energy sources developed, emissions in the
variants cover a very wide range. In the fossil-fuel intensive
scenario group A1FI, emissions approach those of the A2
scenarios; conversely in scenario group A1T with low labor
productivity or of rapid progress in "post-fossil"
energy technologies, emissions are intermediate between those of
B1 and B2. These scenario variants have been introduced into
the A1 storyline because of its "high growth with high
tech" nature, where differences in alternative technology
developments translate into large differences in future GHG
emission levels Ecological resilience is assumed to be high in
this storyline. Environmental amenities are viewed in a
utilitarian way, based on their influence on the formal economy.
The concept of environmental quality might change in thisstoryline from"conservation" of nature to active
"management" - and marketing - of natural and
environmental services. Data are available for the following
periods: 1961-1990, 2010-2039; 2040-2069; and 2090-2099 Mean
monthly and change fields.

本研究采用的模式为耦合海-气模式，该模式由CCSR/NIES大气环流模式（General Circulation Model, GCM）、CCSR海洋环流模式、热力学海冰模式以及河道汇流模式组成（Abe-Ouchi等，1996）。大气部分采用T21谱截断（约5.6度经纬度分辨率），包含20个垂直层；海洋部分采用约2.8度的水平网格，包含17个垂直层。为抑制模拟气候的漂移，采用了海-气间热量与水汽交换的通量调整方案。大气模式采用基于k分布的双流离散纵标法（Discrete Ordinate Method, DOM）（Nakajima与Tanaka，1986），该方案可一致地处理气体、云和气溶胶粒子的吸收、发射与散射过程。在计算硫酸盐气溶胶光学特性时，假设干燥环境下硫酸盐粒子的体积模态半径为0.2微米；硫酸盐的吸湿性增长采用d'Almeida等（1991）提出的经验拟合公式。假设硫酸盐气溶胶的垂直分布在大气最低2 km内保持恒定。温室气体浓度以等效CO₂形式表征。

本研究共开展3组时长为200个模式年（1890-2090年）的积分试验。对照试验（CTL）中，全球均匀分布的温室气体浓度恒定为345体积百万分比（parts per million by volume, ppmv）CO₂当量，硫酸盐浓度设为0。GG试验中，温室气体浓度逐步升高，硫酸盐浓度保持为0。GS试验中，人为硫酸盐与温室气体浓度均随时间增加，且气溶胶直接辐射效应按前述方式显式表征；所有试验均未考虑气溶胶间接辐射效应。

温室气体与硫酸盐气溶胶的大气浓度情景参考Mitchell与Johns（1997）的方案。温室气体浓度变化基于1890-1990年的历史记录，1990年后以每年1%的复合增长率递增。对于硫酸盐气溶胶，以硫循环模式（Langer与Rodhe，1991）估算的1986年与2050年硫酸盐负荷的空间分布作为基准形态：1990年前采用1986年基准形态按全球年平均硫排放速率缩放，2050年后采用2050年基准形态缩放，中间年份通过两个基准形态插值得到对应年份的分布形态。未来硫排放速率基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）IS92a情景。本试验中硫酸盐浓度初始值设为1890年的0，且未考虑硫酸盐浓度的季节变化。相关试验结果的讨论详见Emori等（1999）。

通过平衡积分估算得到的CCSR/NIES模式气候敏感度为3.5摄氏度。本数据集包含CCSR/NIES模式的全球平均温度、降水及CO₂变化（相对于1961-1990年基准期）。

以下内容来自IPCC官网：A1情景族描述了经济快速且成功发展的场景，其中各国人均收入区域均值逐步趋同，当前贫富国家间的差异最终消失。该情景族中，人口与经济趋势紧密关联，因为富裕程度与长寿命、小家庭（低死亡率与低生育率）正相关。全球人口到2050年将增长至约90亿，2100年回落至约70亿。人口平均年龄上升，退休人群的需求主要通过私人养老金体系中的累积储蓄满足。全球经济到2100年将以年均约3%的速率扩张，这与1850年以来的全球平均增长率大致相当，尽管驱动全球经济增长与人均收入提升的条件在历史上前所未有。到2050年，人均收入将达到约21000美元。尽管较高的人均收入水平极大改善了绝大多数人群的整体健康与社会状况，但该场景并非毫无问题。尤其值得注意的是，许多社区可能面临20世纪富裕国家曾遭遇的社会排斥问题，且在诸多地区，收入增长可能伴随全球公共资源的压力加剧。

该情景族中，能源与矿产资源储量充足，因为技术的快速进步既降低了单位产出所需的资源消耗，又提升了经济可开采储量。最终能源强度（单位GDP能耗）将以年均1.3%的速率下降。随着收入的快速增长，饮食结构最初会显著转向肉类与乳制品消费，但随后可能因老龄化社会对健康的重视程度提升而有所下降。高收入也对应着高汽车保有率、全国乃至全球范围内的郊区蔓延与密集交通网络。土地价格的增速快于人均收入，这些因素与高薪资共同导致农业生产强度大幅提升。

A1情景族共包含3个情景组，以反映在这个快速变化的世界中，能源来源与转化技术发展的不确定性。近期的投资决策可能会为市场带来长期不可逆性，导致锁定某一种或另一种技术构型。A1B情景组基于均衡的能源结构组合，CO₂排放水平处于中等水平，但根据所开发的能源来源不同，其变体的排放范围跨度极大。在化石燃料密集型情景组A1FI中，排放量接近A2情景的水平；相反，在劳动力生产率较低或"post-fossil"能源技术快速进步的A1T情景组中，排放量介于B1与B2情景之间。之所以在A1情景主线中引入这些变体，是因为其具有"高增长+高技术"的特征，替代技术发展路径的差异会导致未来温室气体排放水平产生巨大差异。该情景主线假设生态系统恢复力较高。环境舒适性以功利主义视角看待，基于其对正规经济的影响。在该情景主线中，环境质量的概念可能从对自然的"conservation"转变为对自然与环境服务的主动"management"乃至营销。

本数据集可用时段包括：1961-1990年、2010-2039年、2040-2069年以及2090-2099年的逐月平均与变化量场数据。