The Baker Hypothesis

In 1985, James A. Baker III's “Program for Sustained Growth” proposed a set of economic policy reforms including, inflation stabilization, trade liberalization, greater openness to foreign investment, and privatization, that he believed would lead to faster growth in countries then known as the Third World, but now categorized as emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). A country-specific, time-series assessment of the reform process reveals three clear facts. First, in the 10-year-period after stabilizing high inflation, the average growth rate of real GDP in EMDEs is 2.2 percentage points higher than in the prior ten-year period. Second, the corresponding growth increase for trade liberalization episodes is 2.66 percentage points. Third, in the decade after opening their capital markets to foreign equity investment, the spread between EMDEs average cost of equity capital and that of the US declines by 240 basis points. The impact of privatization is less straightforward to assess, but taken together the three central facts of reform provide empirical support for the Baker Hypothesis and suggest a simple neoclassical interpretation of the unprecedented increase in growth that has taken place in EMDEs since 1995.

1985年，詹姆斯·A·贝克三世（James A. Baker III）在《可持续增长规划》（"Program for Sustained Growth"）中提出了一系列经济政策改革举措，包括通胀稳定、贸易自由化、扩大对外资开放以及私有化，他认为这些举措将推动当时被称为第三世界、如今被归类为新兴与发展中经济体（Emerging and Developing Economies，EMDEs）的国家实现更快增长。针对改革进程的国别时序评估揭示了三项明确事实：其一，在实现高通胀稳定后的十年间，新兴与发展中经济体的实际国内生产总值（real GDP）平均增长率较此前十年高出2.2个百分点；其二，贸易自由化阶段对应的增长提升幅度为2.66个百分点；其三，在向外国股权投资者开放资本市场后的十年内，新兴与发展中经济体股权资本平均成本与美国的价差收窄240个基点。私有化的影响则较难直接评估，但综合上述三项核心改革事实，既为贝克假说提供了实证支撑，也为1995年以来新兴与发展中经济体出现的前所未有的增长提速提供了简洁的新古典经济学解释。