Los Determinantes del Nível de Precios en México: Un Enfoque Heterodoxo

ABSTRACT The objective of this essay is to analyze the effects of the minimal nominal wage, a monetary aggregate and the exchange rate on the price level using the Johansen procedure for co-integration. The empirical evidence indicates the existence of a long-term relationship among these variables and the price level that can be interpreted as a price equation. The econometric model allows establishing the specific weights of each of these variables on the price level. Furthermore, the empirical evidence rejects the weak exogeneity hypothesis that confirms the existence of a feedback between these variables. This information was used to build an econometric model in order to simulate and forecast the dynamic of prices in Mexico with satisfactory statistical properties and structural stability.

摘要：本文旨在运用约翰森协整检验法（Johansen Procedure），分析最低名义工资、货币总量与汇率对价格水平的影响。实证结果表明，上述变量与价格水平之间存在长期关系，该关系可被阐释为价格方程。该计量经济模型可确定各变量对价格水平的具体影响权重。此外，实证结果拒绝了弱外生性假设，证实了这些变量间存在反馈关系。本研究依托上述结论构建计量经济模型，以模拟并预测墨西哥的价格动态，该模型具备优良的统计特性与结构稳定性。