ECONOMIC DETERMINISTIC ANALYSIS OF TWO YEARS OLD STEERS PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

Abstract The objective of this study was to realize the economic deterministic analysis of steers production system in full cycle, finished in feedlot or cultivated pasture at twenty-four months old, utilizing or not the quality bonus from slaughterhouses. The study was realized using data from meta-analytic survey of studies in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, in Microsoft Excel® spreadsheets. The systems were simulated considering the male and female calves weaned early, at the tree months of age, and finished at the 24 months of age in feedlot or cultivated pasture. After the slaughter, it was realized the economic deterministic analysis. According to financial return indicators net present value (NPV), benefit:cost index (IB:C) and additional return on investment (ROI) only the system in pasture show return at the end of planning horizon, and the internal return rate (IRR), modified internal return rate (MIRR) and discounted payback (PBd), show that this system possesses a higher risk of investment. The feedlot system show negative results as a investment project. The bigger cost center was depreciation, feeding supply and taxes, and the quality bonus shows up an interesting alternative of return, but was not sufficient to render the feedlot system a viable project.

摘要 本研究旨在开展全周期阉牛养殖系统的经济确定性分析，该系统可于24月龄时在育肥场或人工牧地完成育肥，同时考量是否采用屠宰场提供的质量奖励金机制。本研究依托巴西南里奥格兰德州中部地区相关研究的荟萃分析调研数据，借助微软Excel®电子表格完成分析。本次模拟的养殖系统均以3月龄早期断奶的公、母犊牛为研究对象，分别在育肥场或人工牧地育肥至24月龄。屠宰完成后，对各系统开展经济确定性分析。基于净现值（net present value, NPV）、效益成本比（benefit:cost index, IB:C）及额外投资回报率（return on investment, ROI）等财务收益指标，仅人工牧地养殖系统在规划周期结束时实现了收益；而内部收益率（internal return rate, IRR）、修正内部收益率（modified internal return rate, MIRR）与折现回收期（discounted payback, PBd）则表明，该系统的投资风险更高。育肥场养殖系统作为一项投资项目则呈现负收益结果。核心成本项包括折旧、饲粮供应与税费；质量奖励金虽为颇具吸引力的收益补充途径，但仍不足以使育肥场养殖系统成为可行的投资项目。