Data from: Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use

Reduction of CO2 emissions will require a transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. Expansion of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol1, 2 provides one near-term scalable solution to reduce CO2 emissions from the global transport sector. In contrast to corn ethanol, the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol system may offset 86% of CO2 emissions compared to oil use, and emissions resulting from land-use change to sugarcane are paid back in just 2–8 years3, 4. But, it has been uncertain how much further expansion is possible given increasing demand for food and animal feed, climate change impacts and protection of natural ecosystems. We show that Brazilian sugarcane ethanol can provide the equivalent of 3.63–12.77 Mb d−1 of crude oil by 2045 under projected climate change while protecting forests under conservation5 and accounting for future land demand for food and animal feed production. The corresponding range of CO2 offsets is 0.55–2.0 Gigatons yr−1. This would displace 3.8–13.7% of crude oil consumption and 1.5–5.6% of net CO2 emission globally relative to data for 20146, 7.

降低二氧化碳（CO₂）排放需推动从化石燃料向替代能源的转型。巴西甘蔗乙醇（sugarcane ethanol）的产能扩张1,2可为全球交通运输领域的二氧化碳减排提供一种近期可规模化落地的解决方案。与玉米乙醇（corn ethanol）不同，相较于石油使用，巴西甘蔗乙醇体系可抵消86%的对应二氧化碳排放，且因将土地转为甘蔗种植所引发的碳排放仅需2~8年即可被完全抵消3,4。但受粮食与饲料需求持续增长、气候变化影响以及自然生态系统保护等多重因素制约，未来甘蔗乙醇的扩张空间始终不明朗。本研究表明，在遵循气候变化预测情景、落实森林保护举措5，并兼顾未来粮食与饲料生产的土地需求的前提下，到2045年巴西甘蔗乙醇的产能可等效替代3.63~12.77百万桶每日（Mb·d⁻¹）的原油产量。对应的二氧化碳减排抵消量区间为0.55~2.0十亿吨每年（Gt·yr⁻¹）。相较于2014年的统计数据6,7，这将在全球范围内替代3.8%~13.7%的原油消费量，并抵消1.5%~5.6%的全球二氧化碳净排放。