Produtividade Setorial e Mudança Estrutural no Brasil: Uma Análise Para o Período 1981 a 2013

This article aims to evaluate the relevance of sectoral productivity growth for structural change in Brazil in the period from 1981 through 2013, by implementing a dynamic general equilibrium model with three sectors. The calibrated model was used to simulate a hypothetical scenario where agricultural productivity would have grown at the aggregated economy’s productivity growth rate. Results suggest the agricultural productivity, the highest sectoral productivity in the period, was important to release labor to service sector, even though it may have marginally favored deindustrialization.

本文旨在通过构建包含三大部门的动态一般均衡模型，评估1981至2013年巴西各部门生产率增长与其经济结构转型之间的关联程度。随后利用校准完成的模型模拟了一项假想情景：在此情景中，农业生产率将以整体经济的生产率增速实现增长。研究结果显示，作为该时期部门生产率最高的部门，农业生产率对于释放劳动力流向服务业起到了关键作用，尽管其可能在边际层面小幅推动了去工业化进程。