Thermal regime modeling of the public supply tropical reservoir at Juiz de Fora, MG, Brazil

Abstract Water temperature changes and the dynamics of thermal stratification of an aquatic ecosystem directly influence physical, chemical and biological processes. Due to disturbances in these environments, such as climate change and multiple water uses, studies which employ modeling are important to support emergency decision-making and future planning. In this context, this study evaluated the thermal behavior of the water supply reservoir of São Pedro, located in the city of Juiz de Fora, MG, using mathematical modeling with the IPH-ECO model to evaluate the surface temperature of water, based on meteorological and hydrological data representing the forcing and boundary conditions, respectively. The modeling of the thermal system showed a significant correlation between predicted and observed values, characterizing the reservoir as a homogeneous environment. The simulations indicated that the tributary contribution determines the pattern of spatio-temporal distribution of water temperature in the reservoir, limiting or regulating the variability of its temperature.

摘要：水体温度变化与水生生态系统的热分层动态直接影响其物理、化学与生物过程。受气候变化、多用途水资源开发等环境扰动影响，采用建模方法开展相关研究可为应急决策与未来规划提供重要支撑。在此背景下，本研究以巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州茹伊斯-迪福拉市的圣佩德罗供水水库为研究对象，采用IPH-ECO模型（IPH-ECO model）开展数学建模，基于分别代表强迫条件与边界条件的气象、水文数据，评估水库的水温热行为，重点预测水体表面温度。该热系统建模结果显示，预测值与实测值之间存在显著相关性，表明该水库属于均质水体环境。模拟结果表明，支流汇入贡献决定了水库水温的时空分布格局，对水温变异性起到限制或调控作用。