Risk and Protective Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism, Florida, 2015-2018

The study examines trajectories of risk and protective factors throughout probation supervision, whether such trajectories affect the likelihood of recidivism, and how community context influences those relationships. A state-wide sample of Florida juveniles who completed probation supervision between 2015 and 2018 were included in the analysis. Probationers completed multiple risk/need assessments during their supervision, which were leveraged by the researchers, in combination with census tract information in which the youth resided, and multiple official measures of recidivism. Major categories of variables include criminal background, school records, family history, drug and alcohol use, mental health, social skills, and social disorganization and immigration levels for youth's neighborhoods. Probationer's age, sex, and race were collected as well.

本研究旨在考察缓刑监管期间风险与保护因素的变化轨迹，探究此类轨迹是否会影响再犯可能性，以及社区环境如何调控上述关联。本研究纳入2015至2018年间完成缓刑监管的佛罗里达州全州青少年样本开展分析。缓刑人员在监管期间需完成多轮风险/需求评估，研究人员将此类评估结果与青少年居住的普查街区（census tract）信息、以及多项官方再犯衡量指标相结合进行分析。变量的主要类别包括犯罪背景、在校记录、家族史、药物与酒精使用情况、心理健康状况、社交技能，以及青少年居住社区的社会失序程度与移民水平。此外还收集了缓刑人员的年龄、性别与种族信息。