Distribution of fertility desire.

Background
The changes of population structure will have profound impact on economic and social development. In recent years, the continuous intensification of population aging and the persistent decline of fertility rates have posed a certain challenge to the stability of population structure in China.This paper combines the two social hot issues of elderly care and fertility, and puts forward relevant policies and enlightenment through quantitative analysis and research,so as to promote better social development.
Methods
Based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) in 2017 and 2021, this paper uses the logistic regression model, linear regression model and the Propensity Score Matching model to analyze the influence of the elderly care expectation on residents’ fertility desire. The elderly care expectations include government elderly care, self-care, offspring elderly care and responsibility sharing.The fertility desire includes ‘whether to give birth’, ‘quantity’,‘gender preference’ and ‘fertility echelon’.
Result
The research results shows that: first, government elderly care expectations not only significantly reduces residents’ willingness to have children, but also has an inhibitory effect on lower fertility echelons, but has a promoting effect on higher fertility echelons. Second, the self-care expectations significantly reduces residents’ willingness to have children and has a significant negative impact on their expected fertility quantity, especially has a significant inhibitory effect on lower fertility echelons.Third, offspring elderly care expectations significantly increases residents’ willingness to have children and has a significant positive impact on their expected fertility quantity, especially for increasing residents’ willingness to have a second child, and residents with offspring elderly care expectations have a higher preference for boys.
Conclusion
This study highlights the complex relationship between elderly care expectation and fertility desire, offering valuable insights for policymakers. The concept of fertility echelons provides a nuanced understanding of the dynamic impacts on fertility preferences. By addressing both elderly care and fertility challenges, this research contributes to the development of strategies for sustainable social progress.

研究背景
人口结构变迁会对经济社会发展产生深远影响。近年来，持续加剧的人口老龄化与持续走低的生育率，给中国人口结构的稳定性带来了一定挑战。本文结合养老与生育这两大社会热点议题，通过量化分析研究提出相关政策启示，以期推动社会实现更好发展。

研究方法
本文基于2017年与2021年中国综合社会调查（Chinese General Social Survey, CGSS）数据，采用逻辑回归模型、线性回归模型以及倾向得分匹配模型，分析养老预期对居民生育意愿的影响。其中，养老预期涵盖政府养老、自我养老、子女养老与责任共担四种类型；生育意愿则包含“生育与否”“生育数量”“性别偏好”以及“生育梯队”四个维度。

研究结果
研究结果表明：其一，政府养老预期不仅显著降低居民生育意愿，同时对低生育梯队产生抑制作用，却对高生育梯队具有促进效应；其二，自我养老预期显著降低居民生育意愿，对居民预期生育数量产生显著负向影响，尤其对低生育梯队具有显著抑制作用；其三，子女养老预期显著提升居民生育意愿，对居民预期生育数量产生显著正向影响，尤其能增强居民生育二孩的意愿，且存在子女养老预期的居民对男孩具有更高的性别偏好。

研究结论
本研究揭示了养老预期与生育意愿之间的复杂关联，为政策制定者提供了极具价值的参考视角。生育梯队这一概念则为精细化解读生育偏好所受的动态影响提供了全新思路。本研究同时应对养老与生育两大挑战，有助于推动可持续社会发展相关策略的制定。