INDUSTRIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EFFECTS OF MANUFACTURING AND FIXED INVESTMENT INTERACTIONS

ABSTRACT This research evaluates whether the effects of the manufacturing sector on economic growth are enhanced by investment spending. Previous studies have shown the importance of manufacturing to growth; however, they have disregarded spillover effects of gross fixed capital formation in conjunction with manufacturing. Thus, this study innovates the relevant literature by considering such interaction, and by providing possible alternative interpretations for the low economic activity of certain regions. It used the dynamic panel data model with GMM-DIF estimator in a sample with 119 countries (96% of world GDP), observed from 1996 to 2016. The results are consistent with structural change theory. For each 1% change in the manufacturing share of GDP, an average increase in the GDP per capita growth rate was estimated to range from 0.30% to 0.81%, while the gross fixed capital formation values ranged between the average and very close to the sample maximum. Thus, the spillover effect of capital accumulation was confirmed, increasing the impacts of manufacturing on the region’s economic growth. The importance of manufacturing for growth was confirmed.

摘要 本研究旨在评估投资支出是否会强化制造业对经济增长的影响。既往研究已证实制造业对经济增长的重要性，但此类研究未考虑与制造业联动的固定资本形成总额（Gross Fixed Capital Formation）的溢出效应。有鉴于此，本研究通过纳入该联动机制对相关研究进行了创新，并为部分地区经济活跃度偏低的现象提供了可供参考的替代性解释。本研究采用搭载差分广义矩估计（GMM-DIF）的动态面板数据模型，对1996年至2016年间覆盖全球96%GDP总量的119个国家的样本展开分析。研究结果与结构变迁理论（Structural Change Theory）相符：当制造业增加值占GDP比重每变动1%时，人均GDP增长率的平均增幅预计处于0.30%至0.81%之间；此时固定资本形成总额的取值介于样本均值附近且十分接近样本最大值。由此证实了资本积累的溢出效应，该效应强化了制造业对地区经济增长的影响，同时进一步验证了制造业对经济增长的重要性。