Supplementary information files for "The triadic impact of hydrogen production, electricity generation, and policies on hydrogen feasibility"

Supplementary filed for article "The triadic impact of hydrogen production, electricity generation, and policies on hydrogen feasibility"Numerical models for hydrogen energy system, and full results.The feasibility of renewable hydrogen is highly debated due to conflicting assessments of cost, scalability, and policy effectiveness. This study applies hydrogen trilism – a framework capturing the interdependencies between hydrogen production, electricity generation, energy demand and poverty, and policy interventions. Conventional post-optimisation ranking tools such as TOPSIS, prioritise cost-efficiency, whereas a data-driven multi-objective strategy (DDMOSSS) yields context-sensitive solutions that align with socio-techno-economic goals. A comparative analysis revealed that while DDMOSSS ranks Pareto solutions similarly to TOPSIS under large-scale configurations, DDMOSSS is better suited for small-scale systems where socio-economic trade-offs are more pronounced. The financial analysis revealed that non-islanded large-scale hydrogen systems using imported electricity can achieve competitive hydrogen selling prices of approximately $7/kg. This finding contributes to the debate on islanded versus non-islanded and non-trade islanded configurations, showing that non-islanded solar PV systems outperform islanded and non-trade islanded configurations. A 50 % CAPEX reduction lowers costs from $1.85/kg to $0.92/kg, while a $3/kg production tax credit (PTC) reduces LCOH and NPC by over 113 %. However, PTCs primarily consolidate industry profits rather than benefiting consumers. Furthermore, while Investment Tax Credits provide upfront cost savings, Carbon Credits offer sustained financial benefits by aligning revenue streams with hydrogen consumption. The results also showed that achieving hydrogen market competitiveness requires scaling demand, incorporating policy incentives, and driving technological advancements. For instance, hydrogen must reach around $1/kg to compete with charcoal in Zambia or $5/kg to compete with LNG. These findings evidence the necessity of context-specific deployment strategies over purely cost-driven approaches for sustainable hydrogen adoption.©The Author(s), CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

本补充材料配套论文《制氢、发电与政策对氢能可行性的三重影响》，包含氢能系统数值模型及全部研究结果。

由于在成本、可扩展性与政策有效性的评估上存在显著分歧，可再生氢能的可行性一直是学界热议的话题。本研究采用氢能三元分析框架——该框架可系统捕捉制氢、发电、能源需求与贫困状况，以及政策干预之间的相互依存关系。传统的优化后排序工具如逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS），仅优先考量成本效率；而数据驱动多目标策略（DDMOSSS）则可生成贴合社会-技术-经济多维目标的情境敏感型解决方案。

对比分析结果显示，尽管在大规模配置场景下，DDMOSSS与TOPSIS对帕累托最优解的排序结果高度一致，但DDMOSSS更适用于社会经济权衡更为突出的小规模氢能系统。

财务分析表明，采用外购电力的非孤岛式大规模氢能系统，可实现约7美元/千克的极具市场竞争力的氢能售价。该发现为孤岛式与非孤岛式、无贸易孤岛型配置的相关学术争论提供了实证支撑，研究显示非孤岛式太阳能光伏系统的综合表现优于孤岛式与无贸易孤岛型配置。

资本支出（CAPEX）降低50%可使氢能生产成本从1.85美元/千克降至0.92美元/千克；而每千克3美元的生产税抵免（PTC）可使平准化制氢成本（LCOH）与净现值成本（NPC）降低113%以上。然而，生产税抵免主要增厚行业整体利润，而非直接惠及终端消费者。此外，尽管投资税抵免可提供前期成本减免，碳信用额度则可通过匹配收入流与氢能消费需求，带来持续稳定的财务收益。

研究结果同时证实，要实现氢能市场的核心竞争力，需从三方面发力：扩大氢能需求规模、引入针对性政策激励、推动核心技术迭代升级。例如，在赞比亚，氢能售价需降至约1美元/千克才能与木炭形成市场竞争，而要与液化天然气（LNG）竞争则需降至5美元/千克。上述研究结果表明，相较于单纯以成本为导向的推广方案，采用情境化定制部署策略对氢能的可持续落地至关重要。

©作者，CC BY-NC-ND 4.0许可