Australian land-use and sustainability data: 2013 to 2050

Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, this data collection was produced via a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s intensive-use agricultural land to 2050, under intersecting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land uses and assessed sustainability of economic returns and multiple ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cell) and temporal (annual) resolution. Results available are for 648 scenarios covering combinations of four global outlooks, three general circulation climate models, three domestic land-use policies, three productivity growth rates, three land-use change adoption hurdle rates, and two capacity constraint settings. Outputs included for each scenario are: - annual land-use layers - summary data table - graphical dashboard summary - animation of potential land-use change, drivers, and impacts. This analysis was conducted in conjunction with CSIRO’s Australian National Outlook 2015 initiative to assess future potential land-use change and the impacts for the sustainability of ecosystem services. A full description of the methods and synthesis of the results can be found in the papers listed in the Related Information below and freely available via email from the author. The data is provided to support a national conversation on the future for Australian land systems, public decision-making and policy design, and further scientific research.

本数据集依托土地利用权衡（Land-Use Trade-Offs, LUTO）模型生成，通过对澳大利亚集约化农用地至2050年的土地利用与可持续性开展全面、细致、集成化的定量情景分析实现，分析场景叠加了全球变化与国内政策的复合影响，并纳入了关键不确定性因素。本研究评估了多土地利用类型间的土地利用竞争关系，并以高空间分辨率（1.1km网格单元）和高时间分辨率（年度）为基准，对经济收益与多种生态系统服务的可持续性进行了量化评估。
本次分析共生成648种情景，涵盖4种全球展望、3种大气环流气候模型、3项国内土地利用政策、3种生产力增长率、3个土地利用变化采纳门槛率以及2种容量约束设置的组合。
各情景对应的输出内容包括：
- 年度土地利用图层
- 汇总数据表
- 可视化仪表盘摘要
- 潜在土地利用变化、驱动因子及其影响的动画演示
本分析与澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织（Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO）的《2015年澳大利亚国家展望》项目联合开展，旨在评估未来潜在土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务可持续性的影响。
关于研究方法的完整说明与研究结果的综合分析，可参阅下文「相关资料」中列出的学术论文，也可通过邮件向作者免费获取。
本数据集的发布旨在为澳大利亚土地系统未来发展的全国性讨论、公共决策与政策制定，以及后续科学研究提供支撑。