Experimental Evidence on the Economics of Rural Electrification

We present results from an experiment that randomized the expansion of electric grid infrastructure in rural Kenya. Electricity distribution is a canonical example of a natural monopoly. Experimental variation in the number of connections, combined with administrative cost data, reveals considerable scale economies, as hypothesized. Randomized price offers indicate that demand for connections falls sharply with price. Among newly connected households, average electricity consumption is very low, implying low consumer surplus. We do not find meaningful medium-run impacts on economic and noneconomic outcomes. We discuss implications for current efforts to increase rural electrification in Kenya and highlight how various factors may affect interpretation.

我们报告了一项针对肯尼亚农村电网基础设施扩张的随机对照实验结果。电力配送属于自然垄断（natural monopoly）的典型范例。对电网连接户数实施实验性随机调控，并结合行政成本数据开展分析，结果证实了理论假说中所预测的显著规模经济效应。随机定价优惠实验表明，电网连接需求随价格上升呈现显著下降趋势。在新接入电网的家庭中，平均用电量处于极低水平，这意味着消费者剩余规模较小。我们未发现该项目对中长期经济与非经济结果存在具有实际意义的影响。最后，我们探讨了本研究对肯尼亚当前农村电气化推进工作的政策启示，并着重分析了各类因素可能对研究结果解读产生的影响。