Variance Decomposition by Country.

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of country-specific commodity terms-of-trade shocks on economic growth for developing and emerging countries, not only at aggregate level but also at disaggregate level (agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy, and metals). Results suggest: (i) at the country group level, we find evidence supporting the so-called “terms-of-trade disconnect puzzle”; (ii) at the specific country level, the evidence is mixed (i.e., “blessing effect”, “curse effect” or “negligible effect”); (iii) at the commodity category level, it seems that output is mainly affected by shocks to the terms-of-trade for metals, followed to a lesser extent by those for energy; and (iv) statistically significant shocks occur mainly in the short run.本文针对发展中国家与新兴经济体，就特定国家层面的商品贸易条件冲击对经济增长的影响提供了全新实证证据，不仅进行了总体层面的分析，还开展了细分层面的考察，涵盖农业原材料、食品饮料、能源及金属四大商品类别。研究结果显示：其一，在国家组别层面，本文的实证结果支持所谓的“贸易条件脱节之谜（terms-of-trade disconnect puzzle）”；其二，在单个国家层面，相关证据存在分化，即分别呈现“福佑效应”“诅咒效应”或“可忽略效应”；其三，在商品类别层面，产出主要受金属类商品贸易条件冲击的影响，能源类商品冲击的影响程度相对较弱；其四，具有统计显著性的冲击主要集中于短期。