CONUS-HCS: continental harvest-decision surfaces for the conterminous United States (v4.1, 2024)

Continental harvest-decision surfaces produced by the CONUS-HCS four-stage Bayesian hierarchical harvest-decision module, fit on remeasured USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) panel-pair data across all 48 conterminous states (452,887 plot pairs). The deposit contains ten Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs at 240 m for the 2024 reference year (annual partial-harvest probability, stand-replacement probability in continental and per-region forms, partial and clearcut removal intensity, and dominant silvicultural class with confidence for each regime) plus a per-species cut-propensity table. Occurrence uses a complementary log-log link with a log-interval offset to place the mixed 5-year and 10-year FIA remeasurement cycles on a common annual hazard scale; the rare stand-replacement regime uses a King-Zeng case-control correction. Surfaces are projected to the continental grid using only covariates intrinsic to projected stand state, so they can be reproduced inside a forward projection and coupled to forest projection systems (FVS, LANDIS-II, CBM-CFS3, RPA). Note: the stand-replacement surface measures a forest-to-non-forest condition transition over the FIA interval, not silvicultural clearcut; see the README for the definitional caveat. Version 4.1 adds a Species Value Index (SVI) surface: the basal-area-weighted mean of the per-species price-anchored stumpage value (normalized to a regional mean of one) derived from forest composition, provided at native 30 m and aggregated to 240 m and 960 m. The SVI is defined for the 30 major commercial species that carry Timber Products Output product allocations.本数据集由CONUS-HCS四级贝叶斯分层收获决策模块生成的美国本土收获决策栅格表面，基于美国本土48州共计452,887个样地对的重复测量美国农业部森林清查与分析（FIA）面板对数据拟合得到。该数据集包含2024基准年下10幅分辨率为240米的云优化GeoTIFF文件，内容涵盖：年度择伐概率、全美及分区域的林分更替概率、择伐与皆伐移除强度，以及各经营模式下的优势营林类别的置信度；此外还包含一份单物种采伐倾向表。该建模采用补对数-对数连接函数结合对数区间偏移，将混合了5年与10年周期的FIA复测数据统一转换为统一的年度风险尺度；针对发生概率较低的林分更替经营模式，采用King-Zeng病例对照校正方法。所有栅格表面仅基于预测林分状态的内在协变量投影至美国本土大陆网格，因此可在森林正向预测流程中复现，并可与森林预测系统（FVS、LANDIS-II、CBM-CFS3、RPA）耦合使用。注意：林分更替栅格表面表征的是FIA复测周期内森林向非森林的状态转变，而非营林皆伐作业；相关定义的注意事项请参阅README文件。4.1版本新增了物种价值指数（SVI）栅格表面：该指数为基于森林组成计算得到的单物种价格锚定立木价值的胸高断面积加权平均值（归一化至区域均值为1），原生分辨率为30米，同时聚合至240米与960米分辨率提供。该物种价值指数针对30种主要商用树种制定，这些树种均纳入木材产品产出的产品分配范畴。