Ensemble forecasting of invasion risk for four alien springtail (Collembola) species in Antarctica

Outputs of the species distribution modelling of introduced collembola in the Antarctic Peninsula. 

Code available at: https://github.com/gretacv/SDMcollembola

Biological invasions are one of the most important threats to Antarctic biodiversity. Springtails (Collembola) make up most of the diversity in soil arthropod communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. However, the potential range expansion of already established alien springtails and their consequent impacts on Antarctic ecosystems remains largely unknown. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are a useful tool to identify areas potentially suitable for the geographical spread of alien species that are as  yet unoccupied. In Antarctica, however, the application of SDMs is relatively more recent compared to the rest of the planet and received greater initial attention in marine environments. Here, we implement an ensemble forecasting approach and compute eight modelling algorithms to better understand the geographic distributions and potential range dynamics of four reportedly established alien springtail species (Hypogastrura viatica, Folsomia candida, Mesaphorura macrochaeta and Proisotoma minuta) on the Antarctic Peninsula. Our models identify several ice-free areas across the South Shetland Islands which offer highly suitable environmental conditions for establishment. Thus, biosecurity provisions ought to be reinforced in those sites more vulnerable to invasions. Model predictions of our ensemble SDM approach would benefit from additional field sampling effort across the introduced range and could be complemented with mechanistic models that critically need experimental physiological data to define the fundamental climatic niche of each species.

南极半岛外来弹尾纲（Collembola）物种分布模型输出结果

代码开源地址：https://github.com/gretacv/SDMcollembola

生物入侵是威胁南极生物多样性的最主要威胁之一。弹尾纲（Collembola，俗称跳虫）构成了南极陆地生态系统土壤节肢动物群落的绝大多数物种多样性。然而，已成功定殖的外来弹尾纲物种的潜在分布范围扩张及其对南极生态系统造成的后续影响，目前仍在很大程度上未被探明。物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models, SDMs）是识别尚未被外来物种占据、但具备潜在适生地理分布区域的有效工具。但相较于全球其他区域，物种分布模型（SDMs）在南极的应用起步相对较晚，且早期更多聚焦于海洋环境领域。本研究采用集合预报框架，结合八种建模算法，以更深入解析南极半岛上4种已被报道成功定殖的外来弹尾纲物种（Hypogastrura viatica、Folsomia candida、Mesaphorura macrochaeta及Proisotoma minuta）的地理分布格局与潜在范围动态变化。本研究的模型识别出南设得兰群岛上多处无冰区域，这些区域具备极高的适生环境条件，可支持外来弹尾纲物种定殖。因此，需针对这些入侵高风险区域强化生物安全防控举措。本研究的集合物种分布模型预测结果，可通过在已引入区域开展更多野外采样工作得到优化，同时可结合机理模型进行补充完善——这类机理模型亟需实验生理数据来明确各物种的基础气候生态位。